Modesto leans toward most aggressive growth plan. How much population is proposed?
The Modesto City Council could choose a growth option Tuesday for the general plan update that will guide the city until 2050.
City staff proposes the option calling for the most aggressive expansion for Modesto, a city of 220,000 residents.
According to agenda materials released Friday, the recommended alternative would add 13,860 acres to Modesto’s sphere of influence, or ultimate growth boundary. At build-out, the city could add up to 53,783 residential units and up to 165,650 residents, possibly boosting the city population to more than 385,000 by 2050.
The population projections are rough estimates and the actual growth rate would depend on economic conditions, the housing market and landowner interest in development.
The recommended option, called Alternative 1, includes the largest amount of regional commercial, business center and industrial land use designations, as well as substantial designations for housing subdivisions.
Council members also have the option of choosing Alternative 2, to add 12,380 acres. That moderate growth option has a smaller footprint and includes more high-density housing such as apartments. Alternative 3 would accommodate the least amount of city expansion — 9,330 acres — but with fewer opportunities for business-center and industrial development.
City staff recommends the council choose the option with the largest acreage, even though a smaller amount of development ultimately might be approved. An environmental review is the next step, and a staff report suggest it’s easier to assess the development impacts of a larger area and then approve a smaller growth area for the general plan.
According to the staff report, it’s more time-consuming to choose a smaller area and then add more land after the environmental review is completed.
The most aggressive map (Alternative 1) could accommodate 65 million square feet of retail, office space and industrial uses. The other two alternatives would support 51.7 million square feet and 42.6 million square feet of that type of development, respectively.
The most aggressive map has been opposed by groups such as Voters for Farmland and members of the Wood Colony Community Association.
Todd Heinrich of the Wood Colony Municipal Advisory Council said the Alternative 1 map released Friday has additional areas designated for development, west of Modesto, than what was proposed at public workshops in the past several months.
“I am disappointed,” Heinrich said. “Not only are they choosing the most aggressive plan, they are adding to the most aggressive option. They have added land that was not on any of the maps.”
Heinrich said the city hasn’t given concerned residents enough time to consider the changes. “I got an email from the city at 4:58 p.m. Friday,” Heinrich said. “They can’t give us more notice than that, and then they don’t even do what they said they would do? They have changed the map.”
The most recent changes include a strip of land for mixed-use development west of Morse Road and a business center area along Toomes Road, which is now expanded to Hammett Road.
Denny Jackman, president of Voters For Farmland, said the acreage for 53,000 residential units is not necessary given population trends. “Who are they building for?” he asked.
He noted that young women are having babies later in life and are bearing fewer children. In addition, any plans for aggressive housing development ignore that the baby boomer generation is dying off.
Jackman also pointed to growing congestion on Highway 99 in Modesto and on the Altamont Pass, which suggests Bay Area commuters won’t be buying homes here. “They are following exactly the same footprint as the failed 1995 general plan,” said Jackman, a former Modesto councilman.
The recommended growth option designates land for housing subdivisions north of Kiernan Avenue to Ladd Road. The northern expansion areas are bounded by Stoddard, Ladd and Coffee roads. An eastern growth area extends along Claribel Road to about McGee Avenue.
If the council approves a preferred option Tuesday night, the city will conduct an environmental review. The council would consider a draft general plan update in summer 2027. The update also requires approval from the Local Agency Formation Commission.
The Modesto City Council will meet at 5:30 p.m. Tuesday in the meeting chambers at Tenth Street Place, 1010 10th St.
This story was originally published April 27, 2026 at 12:49 PM.
