Are commuters too liberal? Modesto Republicans try to cut Tracy out of Harder’s district
Groups of right-leaning San Joaquin Valley residents and farming families want to make one Democratic congressional district just a bit more Republican as the state prepares to redraw its legislative boundaries.
The changes they want would tilt the 10th Congressional District away from Democratic Rep. Josh Harder, who has held the Modesto-centered district since the 2018 midterm when he unseated Republican Rep. Jeff Denham.
One plan submitted by San Joaquin County farmers to California’s nonpartisan redistricting commission might make Harder’s district more Republican by stripping it of southern San Joaquin County commuter cities like Tracy.
San Joaquin County in that proposal would have its own congressional district, which likely would lean Democratic because it would contain Stockton, while Republicans likely would gain a Modesto-centered seat.
The other plan recommended by Republicans in Stanislaus County also would strip Harder’s district of Tracy, but it would redraw boundaries to replace Tracy with Lodi north of Stockton.
It also would make the district look like a tinfoil swan-neck. The district would stretch from Modesto to Lodi without touching Tracy or Stockton.
“Interestingly shaped districts are not shocking,” said Andrew Acosta, a Democratic political consultant who is from Lodi, one of the towns that would be at the swan’s beak.
He described the area as “Trump country.” Adding Lodi, which is in the 9th District, would beef up Republican support in that district, he said.
Some experts are already calling the 2022 election close in Harder’s district even though no Republican with prior political experience has announced a plan to challenge him.
The 10th District voted to recall Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom last month, suggesting its constituents are open to Republican candidates.
Republican won’t swipe right for Tracy dates
Some Republican residents in Stanislaus County, which is entirely in Harder’s district, told the redistricting commission that want their congressional district to include conservative farming communities.
They contend that kind of district would make sense because the communities share economic interests.
The largest employers in Modesto — such as E&J Gallo Winery, Foster Farms, Frito Lay and Del Monte — are agribusiness firms. Lodi, similarly, is known for its vineyards and wineries.
“To replace Tracy’s population, I am asking the Commission to add The City of Lodi and the rural communities on the east side of San Joaquin County (Linden, Lockeford, Farmington, etc.) as we have more in common with those agriculturally-centered communities,” read one letter signed by a 91-year-old Oakdale resident.
Many of the letters appear to be in an organized effort, as they mimic one another closely or are direct copies filled out in handwriting. Organized and partisan efforts to lobby officials are not uncommon in redistricting processes.
One of the caucus chairs of Stanislaus County’s GOP, Samuel Bosshardt, also penned one.
“As a resident of the Modesto/Ceres area, I don’t have anything close to a feeling of community with Tracy,” he wrote. “I don’t even seriously consider dating there — I swipe left on everyone from Tracy, Livermore, and Stockton.”
San Joaquin could get its own congressional district
And some people in Lodi, which is currently in the 9th Congressional District represented by Democrat Jerry McNerney, have said that they want to jump ship.
“From similar needs and challenges in managing waterflow from the Sierras to a dynamic wine industry that includes the wine Mecca of the San Joaquin Valley (Lodi) and the largest family-owned winery in the world (E&J Gallo), the shared interests of Stanislaus and Eastern San Joaquin County are clear and important,” read one letter template signed by a Lodi resident.
About 779,000 people live in San Joaquin County and almost 553,000 people in Stanislaus County, according to the Census data being used for redistricting. The typical House district is expected to have about 760,000 people.
Redistricting happens once a decade after the census, which tracks U.S. population changes. California’s sluggish population growth over the past decade led the state to lose one seat in the U.S. House, dropping its delegation to 52.
Where and how that seat gets dropped is up to the independent commission that redraws those boundaries.
The commission takes into account the pleas of those who have offered public input in such letters, said the commission’s spokesperson. Two of the 14 commissioners are from San Joaquin County and might be aware of the counter push to give San Joaquin County its own seat in the U.S. House.
Recent population growth in that county might help those efforts.
“Our uniformed geography and common land-use issues lend it to a single representative unit,” wrote David Strecker, president of San Joaquin Farm Bureau Federation, in a letter to the commission. “And because population centers outside the county are somewhat distant and accessible only by congested highways, county residents tend to look within San Joaquin County’s borders for jobs, transportation, services, entertainment, and culture.”
San Joaquin County is currently split across the 9th and 10th Congressional Districts. Both are represented by Democrats — McNerney in the 9th and Harder in the 10th. Neither Harder nor McNerney’s teams were aware of any of these letters.
One of the organizations calling for a San Joaquin County House district is a medical group founded by the parents of a former Republican challenger to McNerney, D-Stockton. Ricky Gill, son of the founders of Gill Obstetrics and Gynecology, ran unsuccessfully against McNerney in 2012 while the state’s legislative districts were being redrawn.
