Where do Harris, Trump stand in swing states one month from election? What poll found

With about one month left until the election, Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of or dead-even with former President Donald Trump in six out of seven swing states, according to new polling.

In the latest Cook Political Report Survey, the vice president led Trump by 3 points in Michigan, 2 points in Wisconsin and Arizona, and 1 point in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Trump was ahead by 2 points in Georgia, and the candidates were tied in North Carolina.

The results, which are within the margin of error, are largely unchanged from the findings of an August poll, which also found Harris narrowly leading Trump in all but one battleground state.

However, a deeper dive into the data reveals that some dramatic changes have taken place beneath the surface.

Key changes

In the last month, Trump has lost ground on one of his strongest issues: inflation.

In August, 48% of respondents said they trusted Trump more to “get inflation and the cost of living under control,” while 42% said they trusted Harris more, marking a 6-point lead for Trump.

Now, his advantage has entirely disappeared, with the candidates tied at 47%.

One potential explanation for this shift is that Harris’ economic messaging on the campaign trail has paid off, according to a Cook Political Report analysis. Another is that Republicans’ attempt to link Harris to “Bidenomics” has been ineffective.

Importantly, though, Trump held a 5-point advantage when it came to whom voters trusted to “deal with the economy” — the same advantage he had in August.

The latest poll was conducted between Sept. 19 and 25, and it sampled 2,941 voters. The margin of error ranged from 4.5 percentage points to 4.9 percentage points.

The former president has also ceded ground over arguably his most keystone issue: immigration.

In the latest poll, 51% of respondents said they trusted Trump more to “deal with the border and immigration,” while 42% said the same for Harris, marking a 9-point advantage for Trump.

While a sizable lead, it is a 5-point decrease from Trump’s lead in August. In that poll, 53% of respondents said they trusted Trump more on the issue, while 39% said they trusted Harris more.

“Likely helping Harris is the fact that the southern border is no longer as overwhelmed with the surge of migrants, and as such is no longer in the center of media coverage,” according to the analysis.

The latest poll isn’t all bad news for Trump, though.

In August, 57% of respondents said his “second term agenda is too focused on implementing extreme policies,” while 43% disagreed. Now, that 14-point gap has shrunk by 8 points — with 53% agreeing and 47% disagreeing.

Harris, meanwhile, has seen some setbacks of her own in the latest polling.

The vice president’s lead among independent voters now stands at just 2 points — which is within the margin of error. In contrast, in August, she held an 8-point lead among independents.

A positive sign for Democrats, though, is that a plurality of voters in swing states believe Harris will take the White House, marking a reversal from one month ago.

Forty-six percent of respondents said they believe Harris will be victorious, while 39% said the same about Trump.

“That represents an 11-point swing in Harris’ favor since August, and suggests that Harris has been successful in presenting herself as a serious candidate, while Trump’s attempts to portray her as unable to do the job have not been effective,” according to the analysis.

Additionally, just 5% of respondents said they are undecided or plan to vote for a third party candidate, marking a 5-point decrease from 10% in August.

This story was originally published October 2, 2024 at 11:48 AM with the headline "Where do Harris, Trump stand in swing states one month from election? What poll found."