How can Harris or Trump win Pennsylvania? New tool shows many paths to victory

A new interactive tool reveals the numerous ways that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump can win in seven swing states.

The tool — dubbed the Demographic Swingometer — is available for use on the Cook Political Report website.

Announced by David Wasserman, an elections analyst, it allows users to change the percentage of voter turnout and vote share among several demographic groups.

Just slight alterations in these percentages can be the difference between victory or defeat for the candidates, illustrating just how close the race is in battleground states.

Here is a breakdown of some of the ways both candidates can win Pennsylvania, perhaps the most crucial swing state.

How Trump can win

Trump narrowly lost Pennsylvania in 2020. But minuscule changes among certain demographics would allow him to flip the Keystone State.

Assuming all other demographics have the same vote share and turnout as in 2020, Trump will win Pennsylvania if:

• 77% or more of white non-college graduate voters turnout to vote — a 7% increase from 2020.
  
  
• 57% or less of Black/African-American voters turnout to vote — 9% less than in 2020.
  
  
• 52% or less of white college graduate voters turnout to vote — a 29% decrease from 2020.
  
  
• 10% or less of Hispanic/Latino voters turnout to vote — 39% less than in 2020
  
  
• 61% or more of white non-college graduate voters vote for Trump — a 1% increase from 2020.
  
  
• 47% or more of white college graduate voters vote for Trump — a 2% increase from 2020.
  
  

How Harris can win:

President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020. Harris can replicate that victory in a variety of ways.

Assuming all other demographics have the same turnout and vote share as in 2020, Harris will win Pennsylvania if:

• 75% or less of white non-college graduate voters turnout to vote — a 5% increase from 2020.

• 53% or more of white college graduate voters turnout to vote — a 28% decrease from 2020.

• 58% or more of Black/African-American voters turnout to vote — an 8% decrease from 2020.

• 11% or more of Hispanic/Latino voters turnout to vote — a 38% decrease from 2020.

• 38% or less of white non-college graduate voters vote for Harris — a 1% decrease from 2020.

• 50% or more of white college graduate voters vote for Harris — a 3% decrease from 2020.
  
  

The interactive tool, which includes six other swing states, can be accessed here.

This story was originally published September 18, 2024 at 2:29 PM with the headline "How can Harris or Trump win Pennsylvania? New tool shows many paths to victory."