California lost over 100,000 students last year. What are Stanislaus enrollment trends?
Only one of Stanislaus County’s five largest school districts has grown over the past three school years.
The Patterson Joint Unified School District has more than 6,200 students this year. It has steadily grown over the past decade and, due to residential developments, school officials expect that trajectory to continue.
The county’s four other largest districts — Modesto City Schools, Turlock Unified School District, Ceres Unified School District and Oakdale Joint Unified School District — saw enrollment drop from 2019 to 2021, according to numbers provided by the districts and the California Department of Education.
Stanislaus County’s total enrollment for 2021-22 was recorded as 107,091, a drop of 3,365 since 2019-20, according to state data.
Statewide, enrollment in public schools fell for a fifth consecutive year, according to state data. California’s public schools lost more than 110,000 K-12 students just last year. State officials say the declines began before the COVID-19 pandemic and they expect the trend to continue.
The county’s largest district, Modesto City Schools, lost more than 1,000 students from 2016 to 2021, excluding charter school enrollment. The district’s 2021 enrollment minus charter schools was almost 29,300, according to the state’s data. Including charter schools, enrollment was about 30,940.
MCS spokeswoman Krista Noonan said by email that the district’s enrollment “has been holding pretty steady” but has seen “slight declines due to situations such as families moving out of the area or the state.”
As for raising enrollment, Noonan noted the district’s “robust framework of innovative programs and excellent curriculum taught by talented educators.” She sent a list of programs that “further underscore MCS as a Destination District.” They include career technical education pathways, before-school care for elementary school students and after-school enrichment programs, and STEM education at all grade levels.
Parents put off enrolling youngest?
Ceres Unified saw an uptick in enrollment from 2010 to 2019, then a decline of about 400 from 2019 to 2021, according to state data.
Housing development in the years prior to the district’s growth had an upward effect on enrollment as families moved into the area, spokeswoman Beth Parker Jimenez said by email.
“The district has worked to provide quality educational programs, clean and modern facilities, and student-friendly services such as free after-school care, which resonate with families,” she said.
Ceres Unified saw lower enrollment in kindergarten and transitional kindergarten, Parker Jimenez said, suggesting families may have delayed enrolling their younger children during the pandemic.
Going into the 2022-23 school year, district officials are seeing “some upward momentum” in kindergarten and transitional kindergarten numbers, she said.
Oakdale Joint Unified is much smaller than Turlock, Ceres and Modesto school districts but is still the fifth largest in the county at about 5,260 students.
Superintendent Dave Kline said a decline in enrollment from 2019 to 2021 is likely due to a combination of factors, including families trying alternative schooling because of the pandemic and residents leaving the area.
The district has relied on attendance liaisons to check in on missing students who don’t fall into those categories, he said.
Oakdale will offer its independent study program next year based on this year’s demand, Kline said. More than 200 students enrolled in that option.
Why Patterson enrollment is growing
Patterson is growing because of added housing, Superintendent Phil Alfano said. That has Patterson Joint Unified officials dealing with another issue: creating enough space for an anticipated influx of students.
The city could have four residential development projects underway at once. “You just can’t keep up with that,” Alfano said.
However, deputy city attorney Doug White told The Bee that, historically, Patterson has seen 150 to 250 homes built per year.
PJUSD added about 200 students this school year. Alfano said he thinks some students who moved to the city during the pandemic remained in distance learning with their former school districts, then enrolled in Patterson this year when schools were fully in person.
