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Will Modesto see rain or sunshine on Christmas? Here’s the latest weather forecast

Dreaming of a white Christmas in Modesto?

The odds of that happening are pretty slim, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Kate Forrest.

“We might have a rainy Christmas (instead),” she said with a laugh.

“Active weather returns this weekend as two systems bring light to moderate precipitation through Monday morning,” the National Weather Service wrote in a Friday, Dec. 20, post on X.

Snow levels will hover above 6,000 feet, which will “prevent any significant accumulations,” the weather service said.

“This weekend is going to be all rainy,” Forrest said, while “Monday is looking pretty clear.”

“We’ll see the rain persist through Christmas Eve,” Forrest said.

Will it rain in Modesto on Christmas Day? Here’s what to know:

J Street in Modesto is seen on Friday, March 10, 2023. Will it rain in Modesto on Christmas Day, Dec. 25, 2024?
J Street in Modesto is seen on Friday, March 10, 2023. Will it rain in Modesto on Christmas Day, Dec. 25, 2024? Andy Alfaro aalfaro@modbee.com

What’s in the weather forecast for Modesto?

After “widespread dense fog” in the morning, Modesto was expected to be partly sunny Friday, with a high temperature near 59 degrees and light winds, according to the National Weather Service’s latest seven-day forecast.

Friday night will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature around 45 degrees.

On Saturday, there’s a 40% chance of showers, mainly between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., the weather service said, with the rain returning after 10 p.m.

The city could see less than a 10th of an inch of fresh rainfall each time.

People walk in the rain past the Rockin’ Holiday display in downtown Modesto, Calif., Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022. Will it rain in Modesto on Christmas Day, Dec. 25, 2024?
People walk in the rain past the Rockin’ Holiday display in downtown Modesto, Calif., Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022. Will it rain in Modesto on Christmas Day, Dec. 25, 2024? Andy Alfaro aalfaro@modbee.com

Saturday will have a high near 60 and an overnight low around 53. There’s a 30% chance of showers after 10 p.m.

Sunday has a chance of showers before 10 a.m. and after 4 p.m. The day will be partly sunny, with a high near 64 and an overnight low around 53.

Monday is expected to be mostly cloudy, with a high near 65 and a low around 54. There’s a chance of showers after 10 p.m.

Rain falls as people watch the Celebration of Lights holiday parade on J Street in Modesto, Calif., Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022. Will it rain in Modesto on Christmas Day, Dec. 25, 2024?
Rain falls as people watch the Celebration of Lights holiday parade on J Street in Modesto, Calif., Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022. Will it rain in Modesto on Christmas Day, Dec. 25, 2024? Andy Alfaro aalfaro@modbee.com

Will it rain on Christmas Eve? Christmas Day?

Christmas Eve — Tuesday, Dec. 24 — will be a soggy holiday, according to the weather service.

Modesto will see rain showers, mainly before 4 p.m., with more rain possible before 10 p.m.

Otherwise, the day will be cloudy, with a high near 61 and an overnight low around 45.

Sunshine will return just in time for the big day, the weather service said. Christmas Day will be partly sunny, with a high near 55 and a low around 46.

There’s another chance of showers on Thursday, which will have a high near 55.

A Rockin Holiday ornament is wet from the rain on 10th Street in downtown Modesto, Calif., Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022. Will it rain in Modesto on Christmas Day, Dec. 25, 2024?
A Rockin Holiday ornament is wet from the rain on 10th Street in downtown Modesto, Calif., Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022. Will it rain in Modesto on Christmas Day, Dec. 25, 2024? Andy Alfaro aalfaro@modbee.com

How long will the wet weather last?

There’s an above-normal chance of precipitation in Northern California through Dec. 29, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center.

Above-normal precipitation chances could last “into the new year,” Forrest said.

“We could stay in this wet pattern,” she said.

Forrest advised area residents to keep checking the forecast as they plan activities for New Year’s Eve, Dec. 31, noting that things could change as the holiday draws near.

What do you want to know about life in Modesto? Ask our service journalism team your top-of-mind questions in the module below or email servicejournalists@modbee.com.

This story was originally published December 20, 2024 at 10:50 AM.

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Sarah Linn
The Tribune
Sarah Linn is an editor and reporter on the West Service Journalism Team, working with journalists in Sacramento, Modesto, Fresno, Merced and San Luis Obispo in California and Bellingham, Olympia and Tri-Cities in Washington, as well as Boise, Idaho. She previously served as the Local/Entertainment Editor of The Tribune in San Luis Obispo, working there for nearly two decades. A graduate of Oregon State University, she has earned multiple California journalism awards.
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