National gas prices expected to fall below $4 average. How California, Modesto are faring

The average price of a gallon of regular gas in the United States is hovering around $4 and expected to fall further this week, a trend that is hitting California as well, according to the American Automobile Association.

Tuesday, AAA reported the average at $4.03 a gallon. According to data from GasBuddy, national gasoline prices have already dropped to $3.99 per gallon average Tuesday for the first time since early March.

Tuesday, the California-wide average gas price was $5.42, which is a nearly 17 cent drop from a week ago and a 70 cent drop from the previous month, according to AAA.

This visualization compares average gas prices across counties in California, with data from AAA.

In the Modesto area, drivers also may feel some relief at the pump. The average price in Stanislaus County on Wednesday, according to AAA, was $5.19. That’s down 16 cents from a week ago and nearly 77 cents from a month ago.

GasBuddy reported Wednesday that the lowest price per gallon in the county was $4.65 at Joe’s Travel Plaza, 4415 Howard Road in Westley.

The lowest price shown in Modesto was $4.69, offered at BZ Mart, 1510 Miller Ave., and Circle 7, 145 N. Santa Cruz Ave. The stations are near each other in the area of La Loma Avenue and Yosemite Boulevard.

Why the decrease?

Steadily falling gas prices are due in large part to a lack of demand, caused by overall higher pump prices, according to AAA. Compared to this time last year, the national average is up around 87 cents.

The lack of demand comes as drivers change their everyday life and other driving habits, said John Treanor, a AAA spokesman. Almost two-thirds of Americans changed their habits since March, according to a new AAA survey.

“In large part, drivers initially changed the way they lived their life outside of driving,” Treanor said. “They still prioritized driving, but they did less shopping, they did less dining out.”

And when it came to driving, Treanor said many people in the survey combined errands and relied more on delivery services to minimize the amount they were driving.

“If they had a long list of things that they needed to do, they would do them in one trip to avoid stopping and starting often,” he said.

He added that more Americans have also switched to using electric vehicles and public transportation, which avoids the personal costs of gasoline.

Another factor driving gasoline costs down is the cost of oil dropping to under $100 per barrel, Treanor said. It is currently “hovering around $93 or $96 per barrel.”

How long will it last?

August represents the middle of summer driving season, which typically begins around Memorial Day.

Despite high fuel prices, travel was still “heavy” among U.S. drivers when it came to planned road trips — which represents an “outlier” to other driving habits this summer.

“Americans that planned road trips, 50 miles or more, who had not been able to take road trips predominantly because of COVID and COVID restrictions, they were still taking those road trips,” Treanor said.

Labor Day marks the last big driving holiday over the summer.

However, as gas prices continue to fall, this may change people’s driving habits and could potentially drive up demand, Treanor said.

“Just because prices are going down now, we don’t know what the future holds, primarily because a lot of it is being shaped by people’s driving habits.”

This story was originally published August 9, 2022 at 1:54 PM.