Stanislaus County waits for COVID omicron strain to hit. Will it cause a new surge?
A fast-advancing omicron variant of the coronavirus hasn’t shown up yet in test results in Stanislaus County.
But it’s a matter of time before omicron appears and starts competing with a delta strain that’s been the dominant COVID variant here since July, according to health officials.
Bay Area counties have reported a few dozen cases of omicron. The variant is perceived as a major threat because it spreads more quickly than other strains of the virus causing COVID-19 infection.
“The cases are shown to double within three days in areas where it has been seen,” Kamlesh Kaur, a health educator for the county, said Monday. “With all the holiday travel, we think it’s just a matter of time before it’s in our area.”
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has warned that omicron could become the dominant variant and spark a severe winter surge.
The omicron strain is a game-changer in the COVID-19 pandemic. It has spread through university campuses where nearly all students are fully vaccinated.
Los Angeles County public health reported 12 new cases of omicron Thursday; nine of them were fully vaccinated individuals.
The variant is spreading as the immunity conferred by coronavirus vaccine grows weaker in people who completed their vaccination more than six months ago.
While it appears the vaccines are less effective against the omicron variant, the strain may be causing less severe illness. But early data from a study in England showed no evidence it is less severe in terms of infected people reporting symptoms and people seeking hospital care, according to the Reuters news service.
Citing preliminary reports, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director Dr. Anthony Fauci said last week that booster shots should make a difference against the omicron variant.
Two doses of the Pfizer vaccine may still protect against severe COVID-19 disease, including hospitalization and death, studies have suggested. Other parts of the immune system that are primed by the vaccine “are not affected by the mutations in the omicron variant,” Pfizer officials said in a news release.
A non-peer-reviewed study found antibody levels following two doses of the Moderna vaccine are anywhere between 49 and 84 times lower when put up against omicron compared with the original coronavirus strain. Moderna officials announced Monday that a booster of its vaccine — currently authorized as half the dose of the primary shots (50 micrograms) — increased antibody levels 37-fold a month later.
Is the variant already here?
It’s possible the new variant has arrived in Stanislaus County and simply has not been detected yet. The county randomly chooses coronavirus test samples and sends them out to state labs for genomic sequencing tests that identify the strain, Kaur said.
County health officials will watch for the strain in the increase in cases of COVID-19 expected one or two weeks after Christmas gatherings. The delta variant has accounted for more than 90% of COVID-19 cases. Omicron began appearing in the vast majority of new cases in the United States last week.
Kaur said the chief concern is omicron’s ability to spread more quickly and infect vulnerable people who are not vaccinated. She said unvaccinated residents in this county won’t have protection against the strain and a large number of them could be hospitalized.
According to county public health, about 55% of residents age 5 and older are fully vaccinated.
About 63% of the adult population in Stanislaus County has received two doses of the mRNA vaccine or the one-step Johnson & Johnson. That leaves 156,500 adults with partial or no vaccination.
Kaur said the COVID vaccines are widely available from drugstores, healthcare providers and community clinics. People can find locations by going to the state My Turn program.
During the holidays a year ago, the COVID-19 disease cut a deadly swath across an unvaccinated county population. The vaccines were not available to the public at that time.
In December 2020, the county reported 230 deaths caused by COVID-19, including more than 120 deaths in a two-week period. By comparison, the county has recorded 20 deaths thus far in December 2021 through last week.
Kaur said the county’s seven-day average case rate was 79 cases per 100,000 at this time last year, six times the transmission level this month. Local hospitalizations for COVID-19 have remained below 100 admissions this month and were at 91 on Monday.
This story was originally published December 21, 2021 at 8:26 AM.
