Stanislaus County’s population grew in 2020 as California’s declined. Here’s why
Stanislaus County’s population increased marginally last year, in contrast with the state’s first-ever year-over-year decline in population.
The county population grew 0.2% from 554,931 to 555,968 as of Jan. 1, 2021, according to new data from the California Department of Finance. Modesto gained just over 850 residents over the past year, increasing the city’s population to 219,294.
Meanwhile, California’s population dipped by 182,083 last year, bringing the total population to 39,466,855 residents.
The negative growth rate of 0.46% marks the first-ever 12-month decline since the state began recording population estimates. According to the Department of Finance, the decrease can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, a long-term decline in births and former President Donald Trump’s immigration policies, which lowered immigration numbers.
Still, the decline is likely temporary, H.D. Palmer, a spokesperson for the Department of Finance, told the San Francisco Chronicle.
“Our demographers anticipate we will return to slightly positive growth 12 months from now as the pandemic is brought under control and we see changes to immigration policy,” he said.
This data follows the Census Bureau’s April announcement that California will lose a congressional seat for the first time in the state’s 170-year history due to its slower population growth.
Despite overall population loss, the interior counties of the Sacramento Valley, the Central Valley and the Inland Empire all saw growth — if at small rates — while the counties facing losses tended to be coastal or clustered in the northern parts of the state.
In Stanislaus County, Patterson saw the highest year-over-year growth, with an increase of 0.7%, from 23,150 to 23,304. The only city to lose population was Turlock, at a rate of 0.3%, from 75,030 to 74,820. Both Oakdale and Hughson saw 0.6% increases in their populations, while Modesto’s grew by 0.4%.
Statewide, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to 51,000 deaths over the past year, the data show, with a 19% surge in average death rates over the past three years. Of the state’s 58 counties, 51 saw rates of “excess deaths.”
The state also continued its long-term trend of losing Californians to cities out-of-state. This loss of residents is usually offset by foreign immigration, but last year’s numbers were not high enough to make up for the decline.
Californians are leaving the state for more affordable areas, but the “mass exodus” many worry about is likely an exaggeration. A March report from the California Policy Lab found that the pandemic slowed the movement out of state, but net exits from the Bay Area and other wealthy parts of the state have increased over the past year.
The Modesto area has experienced an influx of new residents from the Bay Area, the Santa Clara County region and inland cities like Stockton and Merced, according to data from a CBRE report on the pandemic’s impact on migration patterns, though the movement appears to be reciprocal.
This story was produced with financial support from the Stanislaus Community Foundation, along with the GroundTruth Project’s Report for America initiative. The Modesto Bee maintains full editorial control of this work.
To help fund The Bee’s economic development and children’s health reporters with Report for America, go to https://bit.ly/ModestoBeeRFA
This story was originally published May 7, 2021 at 12:11 PM.
