How is Stanislaus County’s population growing? Here are details behind the numbers
The population of Stanislaus County has grown to 551,264 in 2020, new data from the California Department of Finance shows.
The count marks a 1,771-person increase from 2019’s 549,493, and a nearly 37,000-person increase over the past decade. The county’s low growth rate is in line with a historically low population increase in the state, though at 0.32%, it’s slightly higher than that of California.
DOF data, which measures the state’s population on July 1 of every year, shows a 0.05% population increase in 2020. This marks a record low in population growth since 1900, according to a news release last week from the department. In comparison, California’s population grew by 0.23% the year before.
“Those numbers are really startling,” said Mark Baldassare, president of the Public Policy Institute of California, in an interview with the San Francisco Chronicle. “This isn’t the Golden State of the past, which was a place in which we saw people from other states and abroad coming to find their way to the California dream.”
The state added 21,200 people in the past year, bringing the total number of residents up to 39.78 million. Though still larger than the combined population in 21 states and the District of Columbia, this year’s statistic falls short of researchers’ prediction that California would cross the 40-million mark in 2018.
Of the 58 counties in California, 32 counties posted population losses, compared to only 25 counties with negative growth in 2018-2019.
According to the DOF, researchers attribute the recent decline in population growth to a lower birth rate and higher death rates due to an aging population, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, this year has brought lower rates of international migration into the state, coupled with higher rates of domestic out-migration.
This migration pattern resulted in a loss of 135,400 residents for the state, as people moved to other areas of the country. And as stay-at-home orders and the pandemic swept not only the state but the globe, migration rates went down as a result.
Inland growth and coastal decline
Stanislaus County’s low growth rate continues a trend of decline in population growth. In 2017, the county boasted a 1.13% growth in its population from 2016; by 2018, that growth rate had already declined to 0.67%.
Population data for 2010 is based on that year’s decennial census. For each year since, the DOF has released its own population estimates based on aggregate data from a variety of sources, including birth and death counts, driver’s licenses, school enrollment data and tax returns, among others. Following the completion of the 2020 census, Census Bureau data will factor into the DOF population estimates starting next year.
In terms of net migration, Stanislaus has been losing residents since 2018 as well: In 2020, the county reported a net loss of 2,392 due to the combined factors of international and domestic migration.
Comparatively, inland counties such as Stanislaus have still been faring better than their coastal counterparts; the DOF said landlocked counties continued a 2016 trend of posting a higher growth rate. Among the faster-growing counties are Merced and San Joaquin —which both recorded a growth rate of more than 1% — while Mariposa and Tuolumne both experienced population decline.
Over the past decade, Stanislaus County added nearly 37,000 residents, from the 2010 count of 514,453.
Birth and death rates in the county have remained relatively steady over the past few years, with a slight decline in the county’s natural increase (the net difference between the birth and death rates) in the past year. This decline can be seen across the state, and researches attribute a lower natural population to the pandemic, and the resulting deaths.
Mariposa, Tuolumne, Merced and San Joaquin counties also reported a decrease in the natural increase rate, as well as a steady or increasing death rate. Similarly, net migration rates went down in all counties but Tuolumne, which after years of negative rates posted a positive migration rate of 59 in 2020, compared to 2019’s minus-51.
But Tuolumne is likely to remain an anomaly, as Californians leave the state for others, like Texas and Idaho, the pandemic continues to take lives across the globe and travel remains restricted. That statewide 40-million population goal will likely remain on the horizon for at least a few more years to come.
This story was produced with financial support from the Stanislaus Community Foundation, along with the GroundTruth Project’s Report for America initiative. The Modesto Bee maintains full editorial control of this work.
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This story was originally published December 28, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
