Modesto gas prices fall ahead of the Fourth. It’s not clear why, but it’s time to buy
Independence Day — and the travel it brings — is just around the corner, and a new tax just kicked in, yet gasoline prices at stations in greater Modesto continued to fall Monday. What gives?
“It’s tough to venture a guess on why Modesto of all places would be bucking the trend” that has seen the national average price of gas go up 4.6 cents per gallon in the past week, said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, in a phone call Monday morning.
He did note that California overall has seen the price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas drop 5.7 cents in the past week. Looking over data, he said Northern California saw a bit more of a decrease than the southern half of the state. That could be because wholesale prices for Southern California went up a little earlier than those for Nor Cal, he said.
“Enjoy it, because this week will see Modesto and much of the northern half of the state” start to catch up with the increase, DeHaan said.
“Enjoy it” means drivers might want to fill their tanks ASAP and would be pressing their luck by holding off for increased savings. Just after midnight Sunday, several states including California slapped on additional taxes just in time for July Fourth travel.
The Golden State now has not only the highest gas prices but the highest taxes on gas, DeHaan said. The new tax hike saw California surpass Pennsylvania, he said.
California’s latest tax hike, 5.6 cents, is not a massive uptick so there wasn’t the urgency by gas stations to immediately reflect the price at the pumps, DeHaan said. A more eyebrow-raising jump is the 19 cents that just hit Illinois drivers.
In a news release from GasBuddy on Monday, DeHaan addressed the nationwide picture. For the first time in nearly two months, the nation’s average price of gasoline has seen a weekly increase, he said. “Of course, most motorists suspected prices would rise ahead of July Fourth, but it’s not the holiday that should be pointed at. Motorists can blame escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran for higher oil prices, declining inventories and even a potential U.S./China trade deal.”
The second half of the summer may end up being pricier than the first half, especially if the U.S. and China can get basically any trade deal in place and/or tensions continue to remain high between the U.S. and Iran, he said in the release. “And not to forget hurricane season’s peak in the second half, it may get ugly at the pump.”
In Modesto on Monday morning, the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded was $3.63, according to modestogasprices.com, a GasBuddy site. The lowest price was $3.31, reported at BZ Mart at Miller Avenue and Camellia Way in southeast Modesto and the 76 station at Ninth and O streets.
At the 76 station on Ninth at O, the $3.31 gas is what the manager called the “unbranded” fuel. It’s available on only two pumps, labeled US Oil. The 76 brand was 28 cents more.
The manager, who gave only her first name, Linda, said the price increase from the new tax might not even occur this week. “It just depends on the owner ... he didn’t tell me to change it today,” she said Monday. “I don’t think it’s going to be this week. It’s not mandatory to do it on a certain day. I think he’s going to wait until they say, ‘Hey, you need to do it.’”
The highest regular unleaded price reported within Stanislaus County was $3.99, at two Chevron stations in Newman and Patterson and a 76 station in Patterson.
The Modesto average price is down about 6 cents from a week ago and about 25 cents from a month ago, but up about 15 cents from a year ago.
The GasBuddy news release included this list of historical gasoline prices in Modesto and the national average going back a decade:
- July 1, 2018: $3.48/g (U.S. Average: $2.84/g)
- July 1, 2017: $2.80/g (U.S. Average: $2.23/g)
- July 1, 2016: $2.71/g (U.S. Average: $2.27/g)
- July 1, 2015: $3.15/g (U.S. Average: $2.76/g)
- July 1, 2014: $4.01/g (U.S. Average: $3.67/g)
- July 1, 2013: $3.78/g (U.S. Average: $3.48/g)
- July 1, 2012: $3.67/g (U.S. Average: $3.32/g)
- July 1, 2011: $3.68/g (U.S. Average: $3.55/g)
- July 1, 2010: $3.10/g (U.S. Average: $2.74/g)
- July 1, 2009: $2.90/g (U.S. Average: $2.61/g)
In a separate report, AAA said more than 5.68 million Californians are projected to travel over the Fourth of July holiday, representing a nearly 4 percent increase from last year. Traveling is considered going at least 50 miles, and AAA defines the holiday period as July 3-7.
That’s a state record, breaking California’s previous high of 5.47 million travelers, set last year. “Fourth of July is the busiest summer travel holiday, and more Californians than ever will be traveling for the three-day weekend in 2019,” Michael Blasky, a spokesman for AAA Northern California, said in a news release. “This follows a decade-long trend of increased summer travel across the U.S., driven largely by a strong economy.”
Nationwide, 48.9 million people will travel for Independence Day, and 41.4 million of those will be on road trips.
This story was originally published July 1, 2019 at 11:37 AM.
