Here’s how COVID-19 is impacting holiday hiring, employment numbers in Stanislaus
Stanislaus County’s unemployment rate dropped in November, continuing a slow trend of economic recovery during the winter months.
The county’s jobless rate was 6.2% in November, down from 6.9% in October, according to data from the state’s Employment Development Department. Local data is not seasonally adjusted. Statewide, unemployment dropped to 6.9%, down from 7.3% in October. The national joblessness rate in November was 4.2%, down from 4.6% in October, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In November 2020, Stanislaus reported 8.1% unemployment, compared with 8.7% in California and 6.7% nationally.
Jeff Michael, the director of public policy programs at Pacific McGeorge School of Law, said the biggest change he noticed in November was local growth in industries like professional and business services. Much of the pandemic recovery has been concentrated to the industries that were hardest hit initially, like leisure and hospitality, and tourism, he said. Now, Michael said, economists are observing growth in other industries as the economy further recovers.
“It’s not just hospitality recovery anymore. We’ve seen some of these other areas grow faster, so that shows these traditional growth drivers are back in gear,” he said. “Those growth drivers aren’t as significant in Modesto as they are in other areas. That’s one reason why the pace of recovery in Modesto is not quite as rapid as we’ve seen in other areas.”
Heading into the holidays, Michael said the local economy can expect to get a seasonal boost from shopping. But unlike in prepandemic years, that job growth isn’t focused as much on retail positions as it is e-commerce.
With online shopping booming during the pandemic, companies have been hiring more warehouse workers than store associates this season.
“I don’t think it’s that people are spending less, they’re just shifting to e-commerce,” Michael said.
Economists have been predicting a more permanent economic recovery in 2022, and Michael still sees this as feasible, but expects there to be a lull in the first few months of the year as COVID-19’s Omicron variant spreads across the country.
As 2022 rolls around, Michael said a lot of industries still are figuring out what the permanent effects of the pandemic will be, whether economically or in the ways they’ve had to adapt their operations. Employers are deciding whether to implement hybrid work models, retailers are adapting to new consumer trends.
Across the board, he said, the full effects of the pandemic won’t be felt for months, if not years.
Still, Michael said there’s ground for optimism.
“We’ve come a long way,” he said, “but we’re not all the way back yet.”
This story was produced with financial support from the Stanislaus Community Foundation, along with the GroundTruth Project’s Report for America initiative. The Modesto Bee maintains full editorial control of this work.
To help fund The Bee’s economic development reporter with Report for America, go to https://bit.ly/ModestoBeeRFA
This story was originally published December 21, 2021 at 9:21 AM.
