Latinos, disproportionately stricken by COVID, hold voting power in California recall
Latinos could make the difference in the Sept. 14 recall election that decides whether Gavin Newsom stays or goes as California’s governor.
But how many will turn out and how they will vote are still in question.
Organizers of the recall give a number of reasons for dumping Newsom, a big one being his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. And as Cal Matters reported last month, Latinos are the largest ethnic group in California, make up about 28% of registered voters and have been “disproportionately sickened and hurt financially by the coronavirus pandemic ... .”
Latinos are not a monolith voting block, according to Stephen Routh, political science professor at California State University, Stanislaus. They proved this during the 2016 election, when Donald Trump made inroads into the Latino vote.
But they’ve also historically had low voter turnout, especially during special elections, Routh said.
Latino and Black voters are more inclined to vote in favor of keeping Newsom, according to the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) Poll. Another poll, though, by Boston’s Emerson College, shows a majority of Latino voters (54% recall, 41% keep) want Newsom out.
In fact, the Emerson results show Latinos are the only racial group that support Newsom’s recall, in contrast to a majority of Blacks (57% keep, 41% recall) and Asians (49% keep, 30% recall) in favor of keeping him. Whites are split 48% in favor of recalling Newsom, 49% in favor of keeping him, Emerson College Polling found.
Double standards turn off Modesto voter
Newsom’s double standards, policies and lack of leadership are pushing Modesto resident Veronica Gonzales to vote to recall him. She said she saw how her children — one with a learning disability, another with autism — struggled with online education while Newsom’s kids returned to some in-person learning on a hybrid schedule at their private school in October.
“It just puts you in the position of being a hypocrite, you know: Do as I say, not as I do,” she said.
Efforts to mandate the COVID-19 vaccination under Newsom’s administration, like AB455 and AB1102, are of great concern to Gonzales, who feels it’s an abuse of power and control to go to such lengths, especially when the governor has been caught maskless and disregarding social-distancing measures, she said.
Joseph Day, chairman of the Republican Party of Stanislaus County, said the prolonged closure of schools came at the expense of children’s education and psychological well-being. He deemed the move unnecessary. “How did shutting down schools benefit our children?” he questioned in an email to The Bee.
Health experts would answer that distance learning helped fight on-campus coronavirus spread among and adults and children. That, in turn, kept the numbers of illnesses and deaths from being even higher.
As it is, an estimated 504 children, from babies to age 17, have died from COVID-19 since January 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And of those children who died, the highest percentage (35%) were of Latino origin. Health inequities among Latinos, who overall were disproportionately affected by the virus, is another issue on which Newsom has come under fire.
His office shared in a statement to The Bee that the governor has “put equity at the center of healthcare.”
Moreover, he prioritized equitable vaccine distribution and even expanded Medi-Cal coverage to people over 50 regardless of citizenship status.
Supporters applaud COVID restrictions
In spite of the circumstances, Modesto resident Angel Ayala believes Newsom has done an exemplary job and his COVID restrictions were the right call.
“I think that helped put California in a better spot than we would have been if you didn’t,” he said, adding that guidelines helped protect the health of many essential workers.
Newsom’s swift action on COVID restrictions, though unpopular among some people, is one reason Frances Lopez of Modesto is voting to keep the governor. She said she’s disappointed with the amount of COVID-19 cases in the county and has chosen to boycott Modesto businesses that ignore guidelines.
“I think it’s very irresponsible,” she said. “I respect the businesses that respected policies the governor and local leaders tried to enact to keep us all safe.”
Newsom invests to mobilize voters
Since 1911, when the power to recall was added to the state’s Constitution, 55 attempts have been made to pull a governor from office, but only one – Gray Davis in 2003 – was successful, according to the California secretary of state.
Routh, the political science professor at California State University, Stanislaus, said the recall is an aberration and candidates will need to engage voters differently.
“It’s a very unusual election because … there’s no pattern,” he said, explaining that it’s difficult for an incumbent to strategize when common pathways to victory can’t be identified or compared to see what works. Further, instead of candidates trying to convince voters they’re the best choice, Routh said this recall is all about the candidate who can mobilize the most voters to the polls.
It’s predicted that a larger number of white voters compared to Black, Latino and Asian voters are expected to vote in the recall, according to the Berkeley IGS Poll.
Campaign money is important for candidates to get their messages out, Routh said, and right now, not much Republican money is going toward replacing Newsom. That can be good news for Newsom’s campaign, which has made an eight-figure investment aimed at educating and mobilizing Latino, Black and Asian voters who may need additional outreach, his office stated.
According to a dashboard updated daily by Cal Matters, as of Thursday, $74.6 million has been raised specifically for the recall election. Supporters of the recall have raised about $9.3 million and opponents have raised about $65.3 million.
Routh said he believes the recall vote will be close and Latino voter turnout will be low. Negative feelings toward Newsom will motivate recall supporters to vote more than those who don’t share that discontent, he said. That’s been the case before, when people are not happy with a U.S. president’s party and congressional seats are lost in midterms, Routh said.
“This is why the polling indicates Newsom is in potential trouble here, because of those psychological political dynamics,” he said.
This story was originally published September 5, 2021 at 6:00 AM.
