Local unemployment is declining, but consumer confidence may soon take a hit. Here’s why
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Stanislaus County unemployment continues to fall as the region recovers from the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Countywide unemployment was 8.5% in July, down from 8.9% in June, according to new data from the state’s Economic Development Department. County data is not seasonally adjusted. Meanwhile, state unemployment levels held steady at 7.6%, unchanged from June’s rate.
Nationally, the joblessness rate declined to 5.4% in July, down from 5.9% in June, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Stanislaus unemployment is well below the year-ago estimate of 12.9%, during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Statewide unemployment in July 2020 clocked in at 13.2%.
Jeff Michael, executive director of the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific, said the past couple of months have been “really good” for the region’s recovery.
Michael said that in comparison to prepandemic joblessness rates, the Central Valley has made one of the strongest recoveries in the state. The region’s reliance on agriculture, manufacturing and other essential industries, rather than a high dependence on tourism and hospitality, contributed to the trend, he added.
“In terms of (the pandemic’s) impact, the recovery is on track,” Michael said.
Stanislaus County saw an uptick in manufacturing jobs in July, with an additional 1,800 positions added. Leisure and hospitality, as well as government services, saw small declines. Across California, most industries added to their workforces, with a net gain of 114,400 nonfarm jobs from June.
Economists still expect long-term economic recovery in the later months of the year and throughout 2022. But rising COVID-19 infection rates and the delta variant are likely to take a toll in the coming weeks and months, Michael said.
“It definitely impacts consumer confidence, people’s willingness to go out and do things,” he said. “People are being a bit more cautious again. ... I don’t know that it changes the path to recovery, but I think we could see some setbacks next month, and a little bit of a slowdown as a result.”
This story was originally published August 21, 2021 at 6:00 AM.
