Stanislaus leaders agree with June reopen date. But will COVID-19 rebound again?
Stanislaus County was busy with vaccinations and efforts to avoid another spring and summer coronavirus surge when Tuesday the state announced it was shooting for a June 15 date for reopening California.
County officials said the state plan won’t cause the local vaccination program to miss a step. But it’s less certain whether the new state policy of loosening restrictions — starting April 15 with private gatherings and live events — will create opportunity for COVID-19 to bounce back again.
“Putting a date (June 15) on when we think restrictions can be lifted may help people stay vigilant and follow through these next two months,” said Dr. Julie Vaishampayan, county public health officer. “Many people are very tired of the pandemic and hopefully, with a defined end point, people will be more likely to continue to follow the guidance for the next few months.”
Vaishampayan and Board of Supervisors Chairman Vito Chiesa said the timeline for a reopening in June seems right as long as vaccine allocations for the county continue to increase.
“Dr. Vaishampayan said a year ago we would be out of this when we have vaccine and she has been right on the mark,” Chiesa said. “We are headed in the right direction. The vaccine has always been the linchpin.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom said the mid-June reopening and elimination of county-by-county COVID-19 tier restrictions is dependent on a sufficient vaccine supply for people age 16 and over, along with hospitalizations remaining low.
The county Health Services Agency is working with an allocation of 16,856 vaccine doses this week for its stationary clinics and mobile units. It’s about 2,600 doses more than the previous week and does not include doses given by the county to health care providers.
The state allocates COVID vaccine to counties and to larger health systems like Kaiser Permanente and Sutter, while the federal government directly supplies pharmacies and community health clinics under different programs.
As of Wednesday, a state dashboard tallied 245,446 shots administered thus far in Stanislaus County, which has 557,700 residents. Another 200,000 doses could be administered in the next 10 weeks if the vaccine providers maintain a clip of 20,000 doses per week.
“We are actually trying to add more mobile vaccine clinics so we can reach more people where they are,” said Kamlesh Kaur, a county public health spokesperson. “We are emphasizing people need to follow the guidelines and get vaccinated, so when it comes to June 15 the state will meet the criteria for relaxed restrictions.”
State health officials are keeping an eye on COVID-19 case rates and hospitalizations, which are near record lows in California. The statewide test positivity rate was 1.6 percent this week, with about 2,000 new cases per day statewide and 2,000 coronavirus patients in hospitals.
Dr. Mark Ghaly, the state’s health and human services director, said officials will keep a watch on key indicators that it’s safe to reopen. Officials are seeing that COVID patients in the hospital have not been vaccinated or come down with COVID-19 in the past.
State health officials also want to know if vaccinated people who are infected come down with serious illness.
As for fears that variant strains of coronavirus could spark new outbreaks across the country, Ghaly said genomic sequencing tests have not detected as much of the contagious “U.K.” variant, or B.1.1.7, as in other states. The U.K. variant is tracking at 5 percent of sequenced specimens in California, while more than 60 percent of specimens are positive for two West Coast variants of coronavirus, Ghaly said.
Businesses given time to plan
By setting the date in June, the state is giving business people and organizations the ability to plan to reopen everything from bowling alleys to sport stadiums to theaters and convention centers.
There are no current plans for a “vaccine passport” system in California, but businesses are exploring ways to ensure customers or people attending concerts or sporting events are vaccinated, state officials said.
Large events such as conventions will likely be held with vaccination or test verification as a criteria for attendees.
Chiesa said Wednesday he doesn’t see the county setting the rules on vaccine verification for events. He expects that state agencies will handle that.
As with most state health orders since the coronavirus surfaced in Stanislaus County in March 2020, business owners have decided if they follow the state rules and local enforcement is a question mark.
The state will maintain its mandate for wearing masks, and with the end of the tier system In June, vaccinations will be another key tool in keeping the virus in check.
Businesses will operate with what Newsom’s office has called “common sense risk reduction measures.” In addition, contact tracing and testing to detect cases early is not going away.
Starting April 15, outdoor gatherings with 25 people or less will be allowed in red tier counties like Stanislaus. And indoor gatherings, while strongly discouraged, are permitted within limits in red, orange and yellow tier counties.
Private receptions and conferences will be allowed in all counties, with modifications to reduce the risks for participants. In red tier counties such as Stanislaus, a reception can be held indoors with up to 100 people if the guests are tested or show they have been vaccinated.
Outdoor gatherings will be limited to 50 people, but attendance can increase four-fold with verification of testing or vaccination.
Indoor live events are also possible starting next week under red tier restrictions placing limits on capacity and requiring physical distancing, ticket sales in advance and a ban on out-of-state visitors. A live event could be attended by 100 people in a 1,500-seat venue, but attendance could swell to 375 if proof of testing or vaccination is practiced.
