Modesto-area residents discuss need, impacts of COVID lockdown in Stanislaus County
With Stanislaus County and the wider San Joaquin Valley under a new minimum three-week stay-at-home order starting Sunday night, the holidays are going to look a lot different this year — as really everything has during the coronavirus pandemic.
That means some businesses, like nail studios and hair salons, will need to shut down. Other shops will see their indoor capacity reduced. Restaurants will have to go back to takeout and delivery only. And residents will be asked to stay at home as much as possible again.
The new order, announced Saturday, triggered when the region’s hospital adult intensive care unit bed capacity fell below 15% Friday night. It will go into effect at 11:59 p.m. Sunday and last through the entire holiday shopping season.
Some residents who spoke Saturday afternoon, just after the announcement by the state and county, understood the move and its impact.
“I think it’s necessary,” said Michelle Belarmino, of Turlock. “I think (the stay-at-home order) says a lot, that people aren’t listening and not paying attention to what’s going on. I think it says a lot.”
Liliana Sousa-Downs, owner of Liliana Downtown in Modesto said from her J Street shop, “It is unfortunate especially this time of year. It will only benefit companies like Amazon that don’t have a problem right now, but small businesses will suffer tremendously.”
Dr. Julie Vaishampayan, Stanislaus County’s public health officer, said Saturday morning she received word Friday night about the order from Dr. Erica Pan, the acting director for California Department of Public Health.
The CDPH reported that only 14.1% of staffed adult ICU beds were available in the state’s designated 12-county San Joaquin Valley Region that also includes San Joaquin, Merced and Tuolumne counties. On Thursday, that number stood at 19.7%.
By Sunday morning, it had fallen to 8.6%, which is the lowest in Newsom’s designated five regions – San Joaquin Valley, Southern California (12.5%), Greater Sacramento (21.4%), the Bay Area (21.7%) and Northern California (24.1%). To get out ahead of it, five counties in the Bay Area chose to implement the tighter restrictions.
“I do feel bad for the businesses,” said Ronda Tinley, a Hilmar school teacher when shopping in Turlock, “I also feel like we need to nip this virus too, so I have mixed feelings.”
The order will close bars, wineries and hair salons and require retail stores to cut back to 20 percent capacity. Nonessential social gatherings will be prohibited; in addition, indoor recreation, playgrounds, salons, movie theaters and live-audience sporting events will be closed.
School districts that reopened transitional-kindergarten through sixth-grade in-person learning under waivers approved by the state and Stanislaus County may continue bringing students onto campuses.
“It’s not necessarily going to be as effective, because I feel like people are just people, they’re going to want to be with their families, “ said Edgar Lopez, a UC Merced undergrad when visiting Turlock shops.
The order may last longer, as the impact from Thanksgiving gatherings and travel are expected in the next week or two, based on the typical incubation period for the coronavirus.
Late Saturday afternoon, the county reported 489 new cases and three more deaths, bringing to 439 the number of residents who have died in Stanislaus County since the start of the pandemic in March. It was in the middle of that month the state issued its first lockdown.
“We expect to see an increase (in cases), but we don’t yet have all the data, in part because there was less testing over the holiday weekend.” Vaishampayan said. “Even if they were sick, people weren’t going for testing.
“The next week is going to be very key.”
The order will continue until CDPH’s four-week projections of the region’s adult ICU bed capacity is 15% or greater. CDPH is planning to make those projections twice a week.
An uptick at Modesto-area hospitals
Stanislaus County’s data dashboard Sunday morning showed a slight uptick in COVID-positive hospital patients from 205 to 210, including 49 patients in intensive care. Only seven ICU beds were available for patients.
Stanislaus County hospitals, which had 124 COVID-confirmed patients two weeks ago, acknowledged a sudden upturn in coronavirus patients. Thus far, it hasn’t been as severe as the huge surge in July when ICU bed capacity was exceeded, though an additional surge from Thanksgiving gatherings looms.
“Whether we will get into the sort of crunch we did in July remains to be seen,” said Dr. Kanthi Kiran, medical director of the Memorial Medical Center emergency department. “I’m concerned about the holiday season and what it could mean to hospitalization rates.”
Before Saturday’s announcement, Kiran said a regional shut down should be guided by facts, but a temporary order would be wise if intensive care and hospital bed capacity nears saturation. She said a “bob and weave” model of policies in the coming months could slow COVID transmission until vaccines are widely available.
Dr. Silvia Diego said primary care practices like hers in Modesto are seeing more patients seeking care for COVID-19 symptoms. She said a regional plan of moderate shutdown orders tied to ICU capacity is a sound one.
“The last thing you want to do is overwhelm the health care system and have people die because they couldn’t access health care,” Diego said. “That would be devastating. There are always the what ifs that weigh heavily and (health care providers) shouldn’t have to triage who gets the resources.”
State health officials say that a review of pandemic data over months shows 12% of new coronavirus cases result in hospitalizations two to three weeks later.
Vaishampayan said in a presentation Tuesday the county’s data reveals a 6.7% hospitalization rate. A fairly large percentage of county residents infected with the coronavirus are younger. About 6 in 10 are people age 44 or younger.
Krista Deans, a spokeswoman for Doctors Medical Center of Modesto, released a statement saying the hospital has been preparing for the surge of critical patients.
“Given the recent increase in hospitalizations, we are closely monitoring the census in our hospital and will make rapid adjustments as needed. We commend our team of trained professionals who are working valiantly to ensure our preparedness as we continue caring for our community,” the hospital’s statement said.
Hospitals across the state are required to report daily to CDPH the number of existing and surge capacity adult ICU beds with necessary medical staff. Neonatal and pediatric ICU beds are not part of the assessment.
The other counties in this region are San Joaquin, Merced, Calaveras, Tuolumne, Mariposa, Madera, Fresno, San Benito, Kings, Tulare and Kern.
Statewide COVID infections reach 1.3 million
As of Saturday, more than 1.3 million infections and nearly 20,000 deaths were reported in California, and the rate of new cases in the past month has been one of the highest since the pandemic started.
Newsom said “The bottom line is if we don’t act now, our hospital system will be overwhelmed,” when he announced the new order in a press conference last week.
Jody Hayes, chief executive officer for Stanislaus County, emphasized that point.
“There is no question that there’s a significant increase in COVID in our community, and our first thoughts are with those that are affected,” he said. “We wish the best for everyone, our health care providers and our hospitals.”
Health experts also fear a combination of patients with seasonal flu and severe coronavirus symptoms could overrun hospitals. Stanislaus County has had only two cases of influenza confirmed this fall, according to county public health.
“We hope that people truly understand that the health care system is getting overwhelmed,” Vaishampayan said. “We want to have the system available for you if you need it, if you have a heart attack, an accident or fall off the ladder hanging your Christmas lights. So, we’ve got to get COVID under control.”
This story was produced with financial support from The Stanislaus County Office of Education and the Stanislaus Community Foundation, along with the GroundTruth Project’s Report for America initiative. The Modesto Bee maintains full editorial control of this work.
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This story was originally published December 6, 2020 at 5:27 AM.
