Will California see heavy rain or warm weather this winter? What experts predict
After a stormy start to fall, California’s stretch of cold, rainy weather may be coming to an end.
Weather experts say the Golden State is in for a “warmer and drier winter” ahead.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, known for its long-range forecasts, recently released its 2025-26 winter weather outlook, calling for dry and relatively mild conditions across California.
“Remember: ‘Mild’ is relative. It’s still winter — so plan (and dress!) accordingly,” the Old Farmer’s Almanac explained. “And if you’re in a snow-prone area, don’t retire that shovel just yet.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center released a similar long-range weather forecast, projecting above-normal temperatures from November through January.
How mild will winter temperatures be in California — and are more rain and snow storms headed to the Golden State?
Here’s what experts predict:
When is the first day of winter in 2025?
The winter solstice signals the official start of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
“The winter solstice is the day with the fewest hours of sunlight throughout the year, making it the ‘shortest day’ of the year,” the Old Farmer’s Almanac said.
In 2025, the winter solstice lands on Dec. 21.
When it’s winter solstice in one hemisphere, the other is experiencing its summer solstice.
“This is all thanks to Earth’s tilted axis, which means that at the solstice, half of Earth is pointed away from the Sun, and the other half is pointed towards it,” the Old Farmer’s Almanac explained.
While the winter solstice marks the start of winter, it also signals that the days will begin to get longer, bringing more sunlight.
What is winter weather forecast for California in 2025-26?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac said most of California can expect a “typical or slightly milder winter.”
As La Niña fades in the Pacific, conditions are shifting toward neutral, altering the jet stream and storm patterns across North America.
This could lead to above-normal temperatures across the state.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center also expects warmer-than-usual weather across most of California this winter.
The chance of above-normal temperatures ranges from 33% to 50%, according to the latest three-month outlook.
“Normal” is based on the average of all temperatures from 1991 to 2020, the weather agency previously told The Sacramento Bee.
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, the coldest periods this winter will be in late January and early February.
Will California see heavy rain this winter? Snow?
Both the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the National Weather Service’s three-month outlook for November through January point to “below normal” chances of precipitation.
“Expect fewer storms, but remain alert during late-season rain bursts,” the Old Farmer’s Almanac said.
While most of California is likely to see minimal rain and snow over the winter, the National Weather Service’s outlook indicates that Northern California — including Sacramento, Modesto and Merced — has “equal chances” of the season being wetter, drier or around average.
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, the stormiest periods are expected in late November, mid-January and late February.
This story was originally published October 16, 2025 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Will California see heavy rain or warm weather this winter? What experts predict."
