Will shutdown affect CA’s congressional races and spark an anti-Trump backlash?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Experts say short 2025 federal shutdown unlikely to affect 2026 congressional races.
- Parties trade blame over health subsidy expiry, framing it as a voter issue.
- Redistricting, vulnerable incumbents and rising unemployment may reshape 2026 contests.
“As far as an impact on congressional races, I’d put that at zero for right now.”
That’s the instant analysis about the three-day old federal shutdown’s political impact from Charles Turner, professor of political science at the California State University, Chico. It’s a view that was widely shared Friday among nonpartisan experts when discussing California congressional races.
“This particular shutdown, however it resolves, is highly unlikely to be a significant issue in next year’s midterms,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a Virginia-based nonpartisan political research firm of races across the country..
Among the reasons: Congressional elections are 13 months away, and a lot can happen in those months — including redrawn district lines in California.
The political parties see their shutdown-driven prospects differently.
“This Democrat shutdown is a window into what Democrats don’t have: a message, a leader, or a plan to govern. Instead of solving problems, they manufactured chaos, cut paychecks for Americans, and fought harder for illegal immigrants than the families they represent. Voters won’t forget who put politics over people,” said Christian Martinez, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Democrats point to constituent concerns about the price of insurance and availability of healthcare, and insist voters won’t forget how hard the party fought.
“Republicans are responsible for gutting Medicaid and ripping away (Obamacare) tax credits — driving up costs and taking away coverage from working families across the Valley. Voters won’t forget who sold out their healthcare to give tax breaks to billionaires, and this will be a defining issue all the way through 2026,” said Anna Elsasser, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
The big disagreement stoking the current stalemate over funding the federal government is whether to keep enhanced subsidies for Obamacare healthcare insurance premiums going past the end of the year, when they expire.
Democrats say yes, pointing to a doubling of premiums for millions of people. Some Republicans want the subsidies to expire; some say there’s plenty of time to craft an agreement.
Will elections be impacted?
It’s particularly hard to assess the shutdown’s impact because California’s congressional district lines could change dramatically if voters approve Proposition 50 in November.
Nevertheless, day after day, Republicans email missives to interested parties about Rep. Adam Gray’s supposed role in the shutdown. Gray was one of two Democrats not voting last month on the House measure to extend funding through November 21. All but one other Democrat opposed the bill.
Gray, a Merced Democrat, narrowly won his seat last year, and his race is seen as a one of two California “tossup” contests by Inside Elections, the nonpartisan research firm. The other involves the seat held by Rep. Derek Tran, D-Cypress.
The most vulnerable northern California Republican at the moment is Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford. He’s getting slammed by Democrats, though he has joined congressional Democrats to push a one-year extension of the healthcare subsidies.
Valadao has had tough races before — he lost a reelection bid in 2018 — and the shutdown could reverberate, said Matthew Klein, House analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
“If President Trump continues to punish blue states by withholding their funds, then theoretically Valadao might be forced into an awkward situation where he has to take sides against the president,” Klein said. Cook says the race currently leans Republican.
It’s particularly dangerous for Valadao if he gets a Republican primary challenge from the right, Klein said. In 2024, Republican Chris Mathys, a staunch conservative, was third with 22% of the primary vote. Valadao topped the multi-candidate primary with 32%.
How polarized is the electorate?
An Economist/YouGov poll taken Sept. 26 to 29, just before the shutdown began Wednesday, found that one-third said Republicans would be most responsible for the closing, 27% said Democrats were to blame, and 31% said the two parties would be equally at fault.
On paper, Republicans have the greater risk because they control the White House and Congress.
“Trump is so associated with conflict and governmental chaos in general that it may just be the public’s default position to be likelier to blame him and his party for a shutdown,” said Kondik.
But, he said, “Republicans do seem to have a simple rejoinder on all of this — the government would be open were it not for a Democratic filibuster. “
While the House voted last month to keep the government running through November 21, the Senate has stalled. It takes 60 votes to move legislation, and four times this week, the Senate could get only 55 — including 52 Republicans, two Democrats and one independent — to go along.
What matters most to voters?
Prospects for improvement heading into the 2026 election year aren’t bright. The UCLA Anderson Forecast this week predicted the state’s unemployment rate, already the highest state rate in the nation at 5.5%, should climb to 6.2% in the first half of next year.
History is full of examples where shutdowns had little impact on elections. Republicans led a 16-day shutdown in October 2013 aimed at ending Obamacare. The healthcare program wasn’t repealed.
Thirteen months later, though, Republicans won a net gain of 16 House seats for their biggest majority since the early days of the Great Depression in the 1930s. In the Senate, the GOP picked up nine seats and regained the majority for the first time in eight years.
“With all shutdowns, if the shutdown is very short, the blame won’t matter,” said Christian Grose, professor of political science at the University of Southern California. He added, though, “If the shutdown is long enough to lead to some pain, the Republicans will be blamed” because they’re in charge.
Klein cited the 2018-19 shut down over a dispute about whether to build the U.S.-Mexico border wall Trump wanted. Trump didn’t get the funding right away, but the shutdown lasted 35 days.
“The 2018-19 shutdown was a complete non-issue by the time the 2020 election rolled around,” recalled Klein. “So it’s reasonable to wonder whether voters will even remember this, depending on its length and severity.”
This story was originally published October 3, 2025 at 1:15 PM with the headline "Will shutdown affect CA’s congressional races and spark an anti-Trump backlash?."
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