Will failing to pass Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill really cost families $1,700?
“Next year, if Congress fails to act, a typical family will face a $1,700 tax hike,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Wednesday when describing what could happen if Congress failed to pass tax legislation.
The South Dakota Republican has used the figure before. So have other Republicans. They’re pretty much accurate, though not everyone would pay more.
Most tax cuts enacted in 2017 expire at the end of this year. If not extended, the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center found that people earning between $66,800 and $119,200 would pay an additional $1,380 in federal income tax in 2026 if the GOP measure dies. The income levels include taxable income, tax-deductible benefits and other forms of compensation.
Not everyone would see a tax increase if the 2017 law is not extended.. The center estimated 81.7% of people in that middle income group would see taxes go up, but 11.2% would see taxes go down.
The center-right Tax Foundation estimated that a married couple with two children would see an increase next year of $1,661 if the Republicans’ “Big, Beautiful Bill” fails. A single person with no children would pay $1,707 more.
Taxpayers can make their own estimate using this tool: https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/tax-calculator-tcja-expiration/
Extending most of the tax breaks is the centerpiece of Congress’ “Big, Beautiful Bill.” The Senate is hoping to begin debate on the measure Friday, and President Donald Trump wants it ready for his signature by July 4.
Tax increases next year?
Overall, the Tax Policy Center estimated 64.2% of taxpayers would see an increase next year if the 2017 law isn’t extended. The Tax Foundation put the figure at 62%.
“If Congress does nothing, most Americans will face higher taxes, worse incentives for work and investment, and a more complicated tax system starting in 2026,” said its analysis.
The $1,700 figure has been a popular Republican talking point for weeks. Before the House passed its version of the tax bill last month, the House Ways and Means Committee highlighted the figure.
Its fact sheet said that “In addition to stopping a $1,700 tax increase later this year, the average American family of four making less than $100,000 would receive additional $1,300 in tax cuts.”
Thune’s office and Ways and Means did not respond to requests for comment.
Most of the tax cuts enacted in 2017 are due to expire at the end of this year. The Republicans’ “Big, Beautiful Bill” would continue not only current income tax rates, higher standard deductions and other breaks, but would add some new features.
If the 2017 tax law expires, tax rates and other policies would revert to pre-2017 levels. That would not only mean higher rates in most cases, but an end to the bigger standard deduction.
It would also restore many itemized deductions, notably the unlimited deduction for state and local taxes. That was capped at $10,000 by the 2017 law.
A divided Senate
The Senate is now embroiled in a tense debate over the bill. Some conservatives are concerned that it would increase the already-ballooning federal debt even more, and want more spending cuts. GOP moderates are concerned those cuts could devastate Medicaid, food aid and other programs popular with their constituencies.
The idea that taxes could go up is the centerpiece of the Republican argument for the bill.
“If this bill fails, an average family’s taxes will rise 22% next year -- about $1,700 a year -- the biggest tax increase in American history,” said Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, in a House floor speech.
“But if it succeeds, working families will be able to keep more of their own earnings,” he said.
The Tax Policy Center analysis found that if the bill fails, then the higher the income, the bigger the impact.
Democrats counter that the tax cuts mostly benefit the very wealthy, and though most people will see lower taxes, they’ll find popular programs cut, notably those that help lower income people.
“Put simply: Americans who are already suffering will suffer more, all to fund tax cuts for billionaires,” said Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif..
Impact if the bill fails
The Tax Policy Center’s estimates of the 2026 impact if the 2017 cuts are not extended:
▪ Income between zero and $34,600, 28.2% get a tax increase averaging $370.
▪ Between $34,600 and $66,800, 67.3% get a tax increase averaging $730.
▪ Between $66,800 and $119,200, 81.7% get a tax increase averaging $1,380.
▪ Between $119,200 and $217,100, 82.7% get a tax increase averaging $2,560.
▪ Above $217,100, 83.2% get a tax increase averaging $11,130.
Amounts can vary widely because a taxpayer’s liability depends on a wide variety of factors, including age, family size, deductions and so on.
Because of those variables, there is a group of people who would see a tax cut next year if the bill fails. The highest earners are in this group -- 16.2% could get an average tax cut of $5,450, the center said.
This story was originally published June 26, 2025 at 10:17 AM with the headline "Will failing to pass Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill really cost families $1,700?."
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