California considers strict stay-at-home orders as COVID-19 cases projected to exceed ICU capacity
Coronavirus cases are rising so rapidly that Gov. Gavin Newsom says if trends continue he may reimpose strict stay-at-home orders like he issued in March to prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed.
Newsom made the announcement Monday while detailing grim new COVID-19 statistics. California’s average daily case rate over the last week has exceeded 14,000. That’s far higher than the previous peak in July, when the average daily case rate hit about 9,880.
That number foreshadows deep trouble for hospitals, as about 12% of people testing positive today are expected to be hospitalized. That could cause the number of COVID-19 patients in California hospitals to double or triple in a month, Newsom said. As many as 30% of hospitalized patients will need intensive care.
By Christmas Eve, the state’s projections show California will hit 78% hospital capacity. In some areas, including Sacramento, that percentage will be even higher.
If infection rates don’t slow, California is on track to exceed its intensive care unit capacity by mid-December.
“If these trends continue, we’re going to have to take much more dramatic, drastic action,” Newsom said. That could mean much of the state will return to a strict stay-at-home order similar to restrictions in March, he said.
Intensive care unit capacity will be be the “primary trigger” for more restrictive COVID-19 orders, California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said.
The risk for transmission is higher in California for all interactions in all settings and business sectors, Ghaly said.
“When you have this level of community spread... the minute you walk in the door of any entity indoors, the chance of encountering someone with COVID who can transmit it is higher than it’s ever been,” Ghaly said. “All of those things we’ve been talking about for months are only amplified today because of the level of transmission.”
Newsom stressed that the projections he described can be avoided if people work to slow coronavirus transmission by avoiding people from outside their household, wearing masks and taking the other precautions he and public health officials have been urging for months.
Some regions are already locking down. Late last week, Los Angeles and Santa Clara counties imposed new restrictions as their hospitals fill with COVID-19 patients. Los Angeles’ new order prohibits most gatherings, even distanced ones held outside, unless they are outdoor religious services or political protests. Santa Clara’s new orders include a requirement that anyone traveling to the county from more than 150 miles away quarantine for two weeks upon arrival, avoiding going outside and having food delivered them.
Santa Clara’s restrictions also include a ban on contact sports, which means the San Francisco 49ers can’t host home games at Levi’s Stadium next month or practice at their facility. The team will instead play its two December home games at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., home of the Arizona Cardinals.
Newsom on Monday announced emergency relief for businesses as the state plunges into the second major surge of the pandemic. That will include sales tax deferrals for small businesses, as well as some help for larger companies and for businesses in sectors that have been hit hardest, including restaurants, bars and hair salons.
But Newsom said that California, despite being a well-resourced state, still doesn’t have enough money to help businesses weather this new phase of the pandemic and needs help from the federal government.
“We need Congress to act with urgency,” he said. “Urgency is not January, February, March and April of next year. Urgency is today.”
He chided lawmakers in Washington for allowing aid legislation to become mired in partisan bickering and implored them to put aside their differences for the good of the country.
“Do the damn right thing, not as Democrats or Republicans, but as Americans,” Newsom said. “It can’t wait. We need to get moving on these supports to help these small businesses that have put everything on the line to make the American dream possible and to have their back at this critical moment.”
California’s steps to prepare early in the pandemic are paying off now, Newsom said. He pointed to the state’s stockpile of protective equipment, which has 40 million more N95 masks than are in the National Strategic Stockpile. The 11 surge hospital facilities California prepared early in the pandemic can be activated to handle this new surge if needed, Newsom said.
In the meantime, California actually has the 11th best case rate in the country right now, Newsom said. But he said California’s spiking cases are still “alarming.”
California’s relative status compared to other states could be hurt by holiday travel, Ghaly said. He urged Californians to heed the state’s travel advisory, which instructs people to quarantine for two weeks after traveling to California from other states or countries.
Newsom said he and Ghaly will be making more announcements in the coming days as the state enters the “most challenging period since the beginning of this pandemic.”
“This is an incredibly important week in the history of this pandemic,” he said.
This story was originally published November 30, 2020 at 1:24 PM with the headline "California considers strict stay-at-home orders as COVID-19 cases projected to exceed ICU capacity."