‘From headwinds to tailwinds’: What Joe Biden’s victory means for California in Washington
California’s relationship with the federal government appears poised to shift dramatically, a change that could mean more federal money for coronavirus response and unemployment backlogs as well as legal victories on greenhouse gas emissions.
While President Donald Trump is suing to challenge the results in key states, Gov. Gavin Newsom is likely to find a chief executive fond of bashing California replaced with an ally come January.
More federal funds?
“It goes from headwinds to tailwinds,” Newsom said at a Monday news conference. From the environment to education, he said, the Biden platform essentially is “a California agenda.”
Newsom raised millions of dollars for Biden’s presidential bid and spent the Sunday before the election campaigning for him in Nevada. While campaigning in Reno, Newsom said the outcome of the presidential race would be pivotal for California.
A Biden administration would start with two important Washington advantages that could also benefit California: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Vice President Kamala Harris.
The second and third in line for the presidency both have strong California ties. Pelosi represents a San Francisco congressional district and wields immense power as leader of the Democratic-controlled House. Harris, a California native, has been the state’s attorney general and is currently its junior U.S. senator.
“It is nice to have a U.S. senator from your home state as the vice president-elect,” Newsom said.
A Biden administration could help California in one big, immediate way: more emergency economic stimulus.
“That would certainly benefit all states, but it would benefit California in a significant way,” said Chris Hoene, executive director of the nonpartisan California Budget & Policy Center. The state’s unemployment rate was 11% in September, third highest in the nation and a sign its economy is particularly strained.
Biden would have broad power to allocate disaster relief money from the Disaster Relief Fund, which had a balance of $15.8 billion at the end of September.
“President Biden would likely have some ability to provide further aid to California, though there are a lot of other demands on the DRF now,” said Daniel Hemel, professor at the University of Chicago Law School.
A Biden presidency could also make a difference in the state’s embattled unemployment program. Federal money funds several parts of the program, giving Washington a potential say in how things work.
For instance, the U.S. Labor Department could put a higher priority on reducing claims backlogs or requiring more timely payments, said Andrew Stettner, senior fellow and unemployment expert at the Century Foundation.
Backlogs have been an issue in California. In September, when Newsom created a strike force to help make the state’s Employment Development Department operate more efficiently, there were 1.1 million claims pending.
A second path for California aid involves economic relief legislation.
For months, Republicans and Democrats in D.C. have fought over what to include in a new coronavirus aid package. Negotiations between Pelosi and Trump Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on a big package that could include state aid, more unemployment benefits and other spending have stalled.
Generally speaking, Democrats are pushing for more money for state and local governments, as well as a special boost in unemployment benefits, arguing that the need during the pandemic is severe. Republicans say there should be less, so that states don’t get a bailout and individuals don’t receive so much from unemployment checks that they delay reentering the workforce.
Newsom says he’s planning next year’s budget with the expectation that the federal government will send states more aid money.
“We anticipate there will be another stimulus,” Newsom told The Sacramento Bee during his Reno trip. “The question is when and what size. That will have a profound impact potentially on our budget and on the economy.”
Democratic control of the White House could help Newsom pass the budget he wants. Newsom said that’s not only because direct aid for testing and contact tracing could be included, but also because an overall economic boost could mean fewer people rely on social services funded through the state budget.
Federal budget and tax implications
A still-divided Congress will hamper Biden from realizing some longer-term spending and tax policies, however. It usually takes 60 votes to get anything through the U.S. Senate, and Democrats will fall far short of that number.
“A number of bigger programs a Biden administration will surely want are less likely to pass if Congress is divided,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan budget watchdog group.
Biden campaigned on making child care more affordable, and working with states to provide free pre-kindergarten for three and four year olds. Child care and early education are both key priorities for Newsom, as well.
Biden also campaigned on raising taxes for people earning more than $400,000 per year. That plan would hit the Golden State especially hard, because wealthy Californians tend to be wealthier than most.
Biden’s plan would raise up to $3.67 trillion over the next 10 years, according to independent analyses. It’s unlikely, though, to get far in the Senate.
“This is a Republican Party united in not wanting to raise taxes,” Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, a conservative group, said Thursday. “There’s not going to be a $4 trillion tax increase.”
Legal victories
A Biden White House would also clear the way to resolve some of the more than 100 lawsuits California has filed against the federal government under Trump.
Active cases would not vanish once Democrats take over the White House, but a Biden administration would likely pause proceedings in many cases while it changes the federal rules California is challenging, said Paul Nolette of Marquette University in Wisconsin, who studies state litigation against federal policies.
Biden would likely act swiftly in some of the environmental cases related to California’s emissions standards, and in some of its challenges to Trump’s border wall, Nolette said. That means California will have a better chance to continue setting its own stricter emissions goals — one of Gov. Gavin Newsom’s priorities — and to block border wall construction.
On the other hand, the Texas v. California Supreme Court case challenging the Affordable Care Act is probably too far along for Biden to alter the Department of Justice’s position, Nolette said. California is defending the so-called Obamacare law against a challenge from Republicans seeking to invalidate it. If the Supreme Court strikes down the entire law, the state could lose $27 billion in federal health funding for low-income families and 5 million Californians could lose their insurance.
“Biden is going to try to save (the Affordable Care Act) in whatever way the administration can, so you’re going to see some maneuvering,” Nolette said. “But the case is far enough advanced that it’s difficult to simply change the Department of Justice’s position as soon as the Biden administration gets in.”
If Biden wins, California’s legal relationship with the federal government will shift quickly from offense to defense. Instead of challenging federal rules in court, California’s attorney general will work to defend them against challenges from Republican attorneys general.
That will especially be true if Republicans retain control of the Senate, Nolette said.
“In order to get stuff done, he’s going to try a number of aggressive executive actions,” Nolette said of Biden’s strategy in the face of a divided Congress. “If that happens, they’re going to be challenged by Republican AGs, so California will be very much on the side of a Biden administration and play a leadership role there.”
This story was originally published November 8, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "‘From headwinds to tailwinds’: What Joe Biden’s victory means for California in Washington."
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