You can start voting in California now. But should you wait?

California is mailing ballots to millions of residents a month ahead of the March 3 presidential primary. That doesn’t necessarily mean voters should send them back right away.

While the state’s election is earlier than usual, a lot could change before election day.

Four other states will hold caucuses or primaries in the next month, beginning with Iowa’s Feb. 3 caucuses. Candidates could still drop out or lose momentum. While most campaigns will work to drive their potential supporters to the polls right away, some political experts see reasons to delay.

“Sure, I’d wait,” said Darry Sragow, who has served as campaign manager for five statewide races in California. “It’s not just because of the early voting states that precede us. It’s because stuff happens. Never mind Iowa or New Hampshire, people get sick, new information emerges about candidates and candidates stumble. If one of the candidates trips up three days before the primary and I already cast my vote, I’m gonna regret it.”

Reasons to vote later

A candidate with a disappointing showing in early contests could opt to leave the race. Already, California’s ballots include the names of five Democrats who have already dropped out – Cory Booker, Julián Castro, Marianne Williamson, John Delaney and Joe Sestak.

If Californians mail their ballot too quickly, they could also miss out on someone beating expectations in a key early state. In 2008, then-candidate Barack Obama wasn’t initially viewed as a likely Democratic nominee. But after he won Iowa, voters in later elections considered him.

Another complicating force is California’s complex process for awarding delegates. A candidate must get at least 15 percent support at the congressional or statewide level to win a pledged delegate, which are needed to win the nomination outright at this summer’s Democratic National Committee convention.

A ballot supporting a candidate who fails to reach either threshold would not qualify for pledged delegates.

But the process for awarding delegates isn’t on the minds of most Californians.

“If they’re thinking about voting, it’s a personal decision,” said Mindy Romero, director of the California Civic Engagement Project at USC. “For some voters, there’s a strategy involved where they’re worried about who’s electable on the Democratic side and can beat Trump. But in terms of the delegate allocation, overwhelmingly, most voters do not understand that and are not aware of it. It’s a complicated question.”

Reasons to vote early

Many California voters using mail ballots say they want to complete them early, however, and other experts encourage it.

Votes cast in February will be counted before election day and announced the moment the polls close on election night, when the national networks are paying attention.

“They should vote early because their vote will matter more on the Tuesday night election result,” said political consultant Paul Mitchell. “They should also vote because if they die, their vote will still count. There’s a pile of people who may forget to vote. (Waiting) reinforces this unhealthy obsession we have with the horse race and the politicization of politics.”

Just 8 percent of those surveyed last year by Capitol Weekly said they’d wait on results from early primary voting states before submitting their ballot. About a third said they would cast their ballots “immediately.” Another 18 percent they planned to vote on the last weekend or drop off their ballots at polling sites on election day.

Based on past voting patterns and a dramatic expansion in mail voting, Mitchell predicts that 5 percent of California voters will cast ballots before New Hampshire’s Feb. 11 primary. A quarter of all California voters will cast ballots before Nevada’s Feb. 22 caucus, he said, and another 15 percent are likely to submit them the following week ahead of South Carolina’s Feb. 29 primary.

Who gains, loses from later voting?

When a voter decides to cast their ballots matters a great deal to candidates who want to claim victory on election night. Bernie Sanders’ campaign recently added a page on its website detailing the many ways people can vote for the senator in California, with early voting serving as a top priority.

Sanders is banking on the support of working-class people who may not be able to show up to the polls on election day due to long commutes or working multiple jobs. He is also competing for support among voters registered with no party preference. Because these voters need to request a Democratic ballot or re-register as a Democrat, Sanders’ campaign must devote more time educating independents on the voting process.

“Bernie Sanders has always fought for working class Americans, so it’s important that those folks are able to turn out their vote for him,” said Anna Bahr, spokeswoman for Sanders’ California campaign.

Michael Bloomberg, meanwhile, could stand to benefit from people voting later in the process, given he is not campaigning in the early four states and has relied heavily on television and online ads to introduce himself to voters. Considered a candidate with moderate views, Bloomberg could get a boost if Joe Biden falters in the early states.

“Obviously we’re not in the first four states. Our Iowa is California,” said Chris Myers, Bloomberg’s California state director.

Most voters, meanwhile, aren’t making those sorts of calculations.

“Political junkies may wait on the early states, but most normal people couldn’t even name the four states that are having their primary,” Mitchell said.

This story was originally published February 3, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "You can start voting in California now. But should you wait?."