Flu fatalities double in California since 2020’s start, with 149 now dead. How app is tracking it
The number of flu-related deaths more than doubled in California over the first two weeks of the new year, rising to 149 on Jan. 18 from 70 on Jan. 4, according to the latest report from the California Department of Public Health.
State public health officials noted that influenza activity remains high statewide and that the influenza B (Victoria) and the influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 viruses are both circulating widely in California. Strains of both viruses were included in this year’s flu vaccine.
Nearly 36 percent of those who have died have been under the age of 65, according to state records, and that mortality rate is consistent with other seasons where flu viruses other than influenza A H3N2 have circulated in greater numbers. The flu typically kills more people ages 65 and older, and this year, roughly 64 percent of those killed by the disease have been in that age group.
Biochemist Laurel Edelman, the chief executive officer of a company called Sickweather, said her team has been predicting since September that the holiday season was going to be tough in terms of flu activity. The Kansas City, Missouri-based firm uses social media posts, past trends and known facts about the contagion to track the spread of influenza.
“It’s amazing to me that everyone is watching this new virus out of Wuhan, China, because of a couple dozen deaths,” Edelman said, “And yet there have been over 8,200 deaths in the United States due to just regular flu. That’s unnecessary in my mind, and I think it’s sad that we have so many deaths.”
Sickweather has an app that allows people to track flu activity on their mobile phones. To show the risk of contagion, the company’s algorithm assigns a Sick Score of 0 to 100 to cities and regions all around the United States. A Sick Score is 0 to 30 means the risk of infection is very low; 30-50, low; 50-70, medium; 70-90, high, and 90-100, very high.
The Sick Score for the four-county Sacramento region is 55 right now. That might not seem so bad, but Edelman said that her company actually begins to send alerts to its clients when the Sick Score reaches 40-50. Those alerts tell retailers or health care providers where to send medications or when to launch marketing campaigns for vaccines, hand sanitizers, tissues or medications.
The Sickweather app allows users to drill down to smaller areas within a region. Locally, for instance, Woodland has a score of 62; Roseville, 59; Folsom, 57; Elk Grove and West Sacramento, 56; Davis, 55; and Placerville, only a 4.
Edelman cautions, though, that Sickweather gets more data from the top 100 major U.S. markets than from smaller cities and rural counties, so the Sick Scores are more reliable for metropolitan areas. Still, she said, she uses it to check out potential illnesses in localized areas that could affect her family.
Edelman said that she doesn’t want the app to give anyone a false sense of security and that, like medical professionals, she recommends that everyone get the flu vaccine. As in prior years, this year’s flu viruses have been deadly even for people considered otherwise healthy.
“It’s still not too late to get your flu shot right now,” Edelman said. “We know that it doesn’t cover everything, but it actually will ensure you’re not as sick as you would be without the vaccine. I’m not saying you won’t get sick, but I’m saying you won’t get as sick.”
Placer County reported in December that a school-age child had died from complications of the illness, and in November, a 75-year-old man with another underlying health issue also died there after contracting the illness. Six children under age 18 have died from influenza during this season in California.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control recommends taking everyday preventive steps to control the spread of illnesses such as the flu:
▪ Wash your hands often with soap and water, but if you cannot get to water, use a hand sanitizer.
▪ Avoid touching your nose, mouth and eyes with your hands.
▪ When you cough or sneeze, cover your nose and mouth with a tissue or with your elbow. After using a tissue, throw it in the trash and wash your hands.
▪ Clean and disinfect phones, keyboards or other commonly used items regularly.
Edelman said flu shots are still a good investment because the season is far from over: “Our forecast ... over the next 15 weeks is that we see continued influenza happening throughout January and well into February, not breaking until the last week of February when levels will fall. We’ll still be seeing a lot of activity out there.”
This story was originally published January 24, 2020 at 3:26 PM with the headline "Flu fatalities double in California since 2020’s start, with 149 now dead. How app is tracking it."
