Economic trends rate raising a beer to better days ahead
Slow and steady growth is the cautiously optimistic prediction of a new economic report for the San Joaquin Valley out of California State University, Stanislaus.
Valley jobs growth plateaued in 2015, a less-welcome sign of a maturing recovery. Other signs were fewer foreclosures, a small rise in interest rates and, for the first time in a long time, worries about inflation, says the biannual Business Forecast Report by Gökçe Soydemir, Stanislaus State professor of business economics.
Overall employment rose 1.7 percent, returning to its non-recession normal, according to the report. Merced County’s rise about matched the average, with stronger jobs growth seen in Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties. Trade, transportation and utilities hired the most workers last year, followed by hospitality services and retail.
In construction, jobs grew and the average increase in home prices settled at 6.7 percent, closer to the historical rate of 4.6 percent. Housing permits grew by 6 percent for a second year and are projected to continue that steady growth through 2018.
Farm jobs remained nearly flat, thanks to the drought. Valley exports were hurt by the rising strength of the U.S. dollar.
The Consumer Price Index hit an annual rate of 3 percent in January, compared with a historical average of 2.3 percent. But wage hikes outpaced inflation, helped by increases in California’s minimum wage.
Uncertainty in global markets and rising oil prices could create headwinds for some sectors. But the report predicts overall economic progress will continue its steady climb for the next few years, with a lift expected if the drought eases.
With the 2016 midyear update, the Business Forecast Report marks a five-year milestone of analyzing the Central Valley’s economic trends, focusing on eight counties. The California State University, Stanislaus, report is written by Gökçe Soydemir, Foster Farms endowed professor of business economics.
The report notes over the years 23 students have worked on the reports, “Each has found opportunities in careers involving data analytics, largely due to having participated in the project,” it says.
The report is used by public agencies and organizations, and has led to two grants for the Stanislaus State College of Business. More than a dozen research papers were published in peer-reviewed journals, utilizing the data obtained for the production of the report, notes the paper’s introduction.
Contributing to the report are Stanislaus State departments of accounting and finance, economic, English and information technology, as well as support from campus administrative support services.
This story was originally published April 21, 2016 at 12:17 PM with the headline "Economic trends rate raising a beer to better days ahead."