Analyst sees economic recovery coming to Stanislaus County. Here’s why.
Unemployment levels in Stanislaus County continue to decrease, setting the stage for significant economic recovery in the second half of 2021.
The county’s March unemployment rate came in at 8.8%, down from 9.1% in February, according to data released by California’s Employment Development Department. County-level data is not seasonally adjusted.
Unemployment also declined at the state level. California posted an 8.3% unemployment rate in March, down from 8.5% in February. Nationally, the jobless rate dropped to 6%, down from 6.2% the month before, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In February 2020, pre-pandemic, the county’s unemployment rate was 6.5%, compared with 4.3% statewide and 3.5% at a national level.
Jeff Michael, director of the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific, said the March numbers are encouraging for the trajectory of the region’s long-term recovery.
“The unemployment rate is moving down,” Michael said. “I expect the job growth to actually accelerate from here going forward, so we should see more positive numbers as we move through the summer.”
Statewide, most sectors experienced job increases over the past month. In Stanislaus County, the two industries to experience modest decline were transportation and leisure and hospitality. Michael said the lack of recovery in the latter sector was surprising, but Stanislaus County’s comparatively small tourism industry could explain the slow recovery.
Michael said recovery is likely to accelerate in the coming months, with a surge in the second half of the year until it moderates out again and economists are able to determine the permanent effects the past year has had.
Gov. Gavin Newsom on Friday said the new numbers were “encouraging.” California added 119,600 jobs in March, and 156,100 in February. Since April 15, all residents 16 and older have been eligible for a COVID vaccine.
“We still have a long way to go, but with over 24 million shots in arms and more kids getting back into classrooms every day, this is the steady progress that we need to bring California roaring back,” Newsom said in a statement.
Though he expects the economy to recover, Michael said some sectors and consumer behaviors will remain permanently changed. The boom in e-commerce, switch to online learning and increased working from home won’t go away just because the economy is back on track, Michael said, but will continue to influence their respective industries for years to come.
“We’ve probably taken five or six years of growth in online shopping and compressed it into one year,” he said. “We’ve accelerated that trend, and some of it’s going to stick.”
Still, recovery will look markedly different than it did after the last recession in 2008. Households coming out of the pandemic are in much better shape than they were after the housing crisis, government support has been higher and the recession has mainly affected discretionary spending — all of which add up to a more rapid recuperation.
“Things are certainly in position to recover more quickly, but you don’t get through a decline like this without permanent scars and permanent losses,” he said.
This story was produced with financial support from the Stanislaus Community Foundation, along with the GroundTruth Project’s Report for America initiative. The Modesto Bee maintains full editorial control of this work.
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This story was originally published April 17, 2021 at 4:00 AM.
