Stanislaus County unemployment rate remains below state. But where are we headed?
Unemployment in Stanislaus County continued to fall in October, but increased coronavirus restrictions could again cause a temporary rise in the jobless numbers as winter approaches.
The unadjusted unemployment rate for October is 9.1% in the county, down from a revised 10.1% in September. The county once again boasts lower unemployment numbers than the state, which has an October unemployment rate of 9.3%, a decrease from September’s 11.1%.
Nationwide, October unemployment was 6.9%, down from 7.9% in September.
But Jeffrey Michael, the executive director of the Center for Policy Research at the University of the Pacific, said these trends are unlikely to continue as the winter months hit and pandemic restrictions ramp up again. Gov. Gavin Newsom last Monday once again tightened statewide restrictions in response to a surge in cases, sending most of the state — including Stanislaus County — back into the purple, or most restrictive, tier.
Additionally, Newsom announced a statewide 10 p.m. curfew, which took effect Saturday and will last for one month.
These restrictions, coupled with falling temperatures and a loss of seasonal workers in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors, will likely stagnate the rate of recovery over the next few months, Michael said. October’s data was taken from a week with relatively low levels of restrictions, so there should be no surprise if the trend of improvement doesn’t continue into November.
“We see some of the biggest gains in the hospitality and retail sectors that have been hardest hit by closures in October,” he said. “It’s a good improvement to get back into single digits by October, but I expect this improvement to stall out over the next couple of months.”
California gained jobs again in October, recording a net increase of 145,500 nonfarm jobs compared to September. Stanislaus County saw a loss of 1,300 manufacturing jobs and 200 farm jobs, with modest gains in other industries. Michael said this is the normal consequence of seasonal farm hiring, but that the temporary retail workers the county will add in the coming months as the holidays approach likely won’t be enough to balance out the losses.
Last year, he said, Modesto added about 1,200 seasonal retail jobs; that number is expected to be less in 2020.
Still, Michael said, news of a potential vaccine against COVID-19 is promising for a potential long-term recovery in 2021 and 2022. What would be most helpful in jump-starting that process, he said, would be another federal stimulus bill similar to the CARES Act to provide assistance to small businesses and individuals.
Congress has failed to pass a second relief bill for months now, but some hope for a possibility of legislation once President-elect Joe Biden takes office in January.
Despite the steady improvements in the county’s unemployment rate these past few months, Michael expected a likely dip in the jobless rate in the near future, before long-term recovery can take hold.
“It’s an incremental improvement but we should expect some stalling in that recovery before we get into the spring months,” Michael said.
This story was produced with financial support from the Stanislaus Community Foundation, along with the GroundTruth Project’s Report for America initiative. The Modesto Bee maintains full editorial control of this work.
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This story was originally published November 21, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
