New jobless data show a continuing trend in Stanislaus County. It might surprise you.
Unemployment in Stanislaus County continues to fall, charting a course for a slow but long-term economic recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
August unemployment in Stanislaus County came in at 10.9%, down from 13.6% in July, and above the year-ago estimate of 5.8%, according to data released Friday by the state Employment Development Department. Last year, the county hit a nearly 30-year low for its unemployment rate in September, when it dropped to 4.6%.
On a state level, August unemployment was 11.4%, compared to a July rate of 13.5%. In August 2019, the state unemployment was 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate for August is 8.4%, down from July’s 10.2%, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Unemployment rates in Stanislaus County have been on a steady decline since April, where the county experienced a spike of 17% unemployment, the highest since the 2008 recession.
Despite the steady improvement, Jeffrey Michael, the director of the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific, said a full recovery shouldn’t be expected for a year or two, and that there will be permanent economic repercussions from the pandemic and resulting economic downturn.
The current numbers are “nothing to celebrate” when compared to unemployment rates a year ago, Michael said.
“Those are certainly deeply problematic numbers, but a good improvement in August and maybe a bit better than anticipated,” he said.
One reason for the August drop in unemployment is an increase in census workers, Michael said. This type of an employment spike is felt every decade during the census year, but typically in April or May. However, the coronavirus pandemic has pushed back in-person census visits, which explain the July to August increase of 66,100 government jobs across the state, 400 of which are located in Stanislaus County.
Other industries, like manufacturing and education, also made gains in August, while industries like hospitality continue to suffer from the effects of statewide closures. Michael had initially worried that Gov. Gavin Newsom’s July closures of indoor dining and bars, as well as malls, gyms and places of worship would adversely impact unemployment numbers, but they continue to fall despite restrictions on reopening.
Michael said the new tiered system of reopening is more cautious than previous statewide plans, and he added that he hopes that the new plan moves forward “a little bit more incrementally, and hopefully more sustainably, so that when things do reopen, there’s greater confidence that they can stay at that new level.”
“It’s not changing our outlook, but it certainly isn’t moving.”
This story was produced with financial support from the Stanislaus Community Foundation, along with the GroundTruth Project’s Report for America initiative. The Modesto Bee maintains full editorial control of this work.
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This story was originally published September 18, 2020 at 2:22 PM.
