Have a job in retail? Keep that resume ready for 2018

If you work in retail, this might be a good year to start looking for a new job.

A new report from California State University, Stanislaus, predicts a slowdown in retail and hospitality professions in the region for 2018. The study found the rate of change in employment in those industries in particular has begun to lag, said Stanislaus State economics professor Gökçe Soydemir.

The trend could signal a plateauing of the valley economy in the wake of its recovery from the Great Recession of a decade ago.

“This could bring this area’s economic growth to a stall,” Soydemir said.

The San Joaquin Valley Business Forecast Report was released at the end of 2017. Among its findings was that for first time since the recession the region’s annual rate of employment growth (at 0.52 percent for 2017) was smaller than the long-term benchmark growth rate of 1.17 percent. Soydemir said valley employment growth is also slowing at a faster rate than at the state and national level.

Still other fields like construction and utilities have seen a rebound recently, Soydemir said.

The study’s projections show the valley workforce could be in for a challenging year. Several factors, including an increase in interest rates, the effects of the new tax law and lingering impact of the drought, means consumer spending in retail, hospitality and leisure activities take a hit.

Soydemir said new Trump-supported tax law, which imposed a $10,000 annual cap on total deductions for state and local taxes including income and property taxes, could disproportionately affect California and valley residents because of the region’s high home prices.

To mitigate the impact of the slowdown, Soydemir suggested workers in the effected fields should consider training to gain skills and education in other industries. The study showed steady growth in areas like construction, education and health services instead.

“A lot of people say, look at the economy and the stock market, it’s booming — it’s at a peak,” Soydemir said. “That’s exactly right. It has peaked. And now we’ve plateaued.”

This story was originally published February 3, 2018 at 4:24 PM with the headline "Have a job in retail? Keep that resume ready for 2018."