Modesto ACE train extension might not leave the station

Hopes for Bay Area-bound passenger trains from the Modesto area appear to have lost steam.

Money from a transportation tax across Stanislaus County, if approved by voters in November, primarily should be used on potholes and other neighborhood street repairs, with some reserved for new highways, most people said in an October poll gauging support for increasing the sales tax.

Listening to that advice, transportation leaders have fashioned options for a potential spending plan that pretty much leaves behind the idea of extending Altamont Corridor Express rail from Lathrop to Modesto, Turlock and Merced. Only one of the three options up for review at a Wednesday meeting would earmark some money for rail, and that amount isn’t near enough, supporters say.

The percentage of tax proceeds to be set aside for neighborhood streets ranges from 47 percent to 50 percent under the three options, followed by 27 percent to 30 percent for “regional projects,” or future east-west expressways in the north, center and south parts of the county. Ten percent would be set aside for traffic signals and school route upgrades under any of the options, while bicycle and walking paths would get 5 percent, and services for seniors, the disabled and bus or other transit could share another 5 percent.

People can express opinions at 6 p.m. Wednesday in the third-floor Stanislaus Council of Governments boardroom at 1111 I St., Modesto. Leaders are expected at a Jan. 20 meeting, same time and place, to choose which spending plan to put before voters in November.

Previous attempts in 2006 and 2008 received majority support from voters, but fell a little short of the required two thirds approval. Consultants say success hinges on choosing a spending plan that people can get behind.

“By far, the highest concern among likely voters countywide” is fixing local streets, a report reads. Rail supporters have made a compelling case at transportation meetings – saying trains reduce road traffic and air pollution – but leaders appear to put more stock in the October telephone survey, which did not reveal widespread support for trains.

“We’re disappointed by the poll results,” said Dan Leavitt, initiatives manager for the San Joaquin Regional Rail Commission. That agency owns and runs ACE, whose trains carry thousands of San Joaquin Valley residents each workday to jobs in the East Bay and Silicon Valley.

He said ACE is “in a waiting mode to see what happens in Stanislaus and Merced. It’s a time when the county needs to decide what it wants to do.”

The ACE Forward effort set goals of extending rail to Stanislaus and Merced counties by about 2020, but cheerleaders emphasized that would only be possible if at least 12 percent of a transportation tax were dedicated to ACE. Anything less would not attract an extra $1 billion in state and federal grant money needed for construction, ACE said.

Some of the 20 California counties with voter-approved transportation taxes set aside far more than 12 percent for rail. San Joaquin County, for example, earmarks 32 percent for transit; without its Measure K, San Joaquin could not have widened Highway 120 and Interstate 205 or launched ACE service over the Altamont Pass.

Raising Stanislaus sales tax a half percent could bring perhaps $970 million over 25 years, previous studies suggested, and 12 percent would translate to $115 million; however, the recent push focuses debate on percentage splits of tax proceeds without mentioning dollar amounts.

A downtown Modesto ACE station could attract more than 800,000 on-or-off riders annually by 2025, ACE says, and even more would flock to Merced if that city gets a high-speed rail connection. Work on environmental studies needed for an eventual rail extension will continue, Leavitt said, with completion expected this summer, regardless of whether StanCOG on Wednesday leaves ACE out of a tax plan.

ACE also predicted that a Modesto extension would relieve cars from traveling a combined 84 million miles by 2020, sparing 50 million pounds of air pollution.

Other tax increases with transportation components have failed on ballots in Turlock (2014) and in Merced County (2002 and twice in 2006). All California counties with larger populations than Stanislaus have approved such measures, except for Kern and Ventura.

This story was originally published December 14, 2015 at 6:28 PM with the headline "Modesto ACE train extension might not leave the station."