Anti-sprawl initiative in Modesto could pass by small margin

The day after Tuesday’s election, the incomplete results showed voters were divided over Measure I, the landmark initiative that proposes an urban boundary for Modesto.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the vote in favor of Measure I was 50.33 to 49.67 percent opposed. The proponents held onto an 83-vote lead.

Stanislaus County Registrar of Voters Lee Lundrigan said there are thousands of uncounted ballots at the elections office, plus ballots mailed a few days before the election and provisional ballots. Lundrigan said almost 14,500 ballots countywide remain to be processed and counted.

Unless the outcome changes dramatically, as the remaining ballots are tallied this week, the election did not reveal a clear consensus on the issue.

“I don’t think it’s a clear victory or loss for anyone,” said Cecil Russell, chief executive officer of Modesto Chamber of Commerce, which opposed the measure. “If it wins, we are very disappointed. We tried to educate the voters. Win, lose or draw, we have to live with the results.”

Jake Wenger, who’s on the Stamp Out Sprawl committee, said he expects the lead will hold up.

“Everybody would want to see a big win,” Wenger said. “The reality is, when you get into these issues it shows that people are really thinking about it. It was an important issue for everyone in Modesto.”

Stamp Out Sprawl held a voter petition drive that placed the measure on the ballot, in hopes of setting a permanent boundary for development and farmland protection. If the binding measure passes, the city won’t allow development outside the limit unless voters approve.

The Measure I boundary roughly follows Kiernan Avenue and Claribel Road on the north, Whitmore Avenue and the Tuolumne River on the south, and an extension of Morse Road on the west. Housing subdivisions and other development would be allowed on marginal farmland east of Claus Road and north of Dry Creek.

The measure was supported by farmland advocates and those opposed to large-scale development, as well as city residents sympathetic to the cause of preserving Wood Colony, west of the city.

The backers of Measure I were criticized for drawing a hard-to-read map of the urban boundaries and including a piece of Ceres in the proposed urban area for Modesto.

Wenger said he didn’t think those flaws were a factor for voters. He suggested the well-funded campaign against the measure affected the results.

The No on Measure I committee, which raised more than $30,000 dollars, sent out three mailers to homes, while Stamp Out Sprawl could afford only one. The proponents raised $15,400 this year.

The opponents claimed the urban limit was a job killer and would stunt the city’s tax base that funds police and fire services, making the city less safe.

“The opponents put together an aggressive campaign in a short period of time,” Wenger said. “We were not able to mount a response to that. We could not send multiple mailers.”

This story was originally published November 4, 2015 at 4:21 PM with the headline "Anti-sprawl initiative in Modesto could pass by small margin."