Focus groups, polls to reveal mood toward countywide transportation tax

The march toward a 2016 vote for a Stanislaus County-wide transportation tax will continue Wednesday as leaders review wisdom gleaned from focus groups looking at potential road and transit projects.

Next comes a survey of likely voters, to be conducted by newly hired Godbe Research, a consulting firm specializing in public opinion and marketing. The parallel efforts – focus groups and polling – are expected to cost the Stanislaus Council of Governments about $100,000.

StanCOG and Godbe will formulate questions to gauge whether there is enough support to ask voters next year to raise sales tax a half-cent for transportation needs. The agency could review survey results in October and decide whether to pursue a countywide vote in November 2016.

A similar survey in early 2014 indicated lukewarm support for a transportation tax that year and more interest in holding off until 2016. That would coincide with a presidential election when more Democrats and young people, who tend to support such tax hikes, are likely to head to voting booths.

A majority of Stanislaus voters said “yes” to transportation measures in 2006 and 2008, but both fell short of the required two-thirds supermajority approval, or 66.67 percent. Such surtaxes typically allocate some proceeds for fixing local streets and others for regional expressways, with some set aside for rail projects.

A portion of tax revenue from places without such surtaxes, such as Stanislaus, flow into so-called self-help counties, supporters note. About 81 percent of California’s population lives in the 19 counties with such surtaxes; Stanislaus and Merced are among the most populated without them.

Critics cite families’ economic hardship, distrust of government and tax fatigue; Modesto, for instance, will ask its voters to approve a half-cent sales tax increase for general government purposes, on the Nov. 3 ballot.

Meanwhile, California officials are studying the idea of dropping the state gas tax in favor of charging drivers for distances driven. A study is due by January 2017, according to a law signed by Gov. Jerry Brown in September.

Street repairs throughout the state are falling ever further behind as vehicles become more efficient. Some don’t consume fuel at all, leaving less revenue for fixing roads.

Also Wednesday, StanCOG is expected to select a new executive director to replace the retiring Carlos Yamzon. Three finalists were interviewed behind closed doors Thursday by the agency’s policy board, but a hiring decision will occur in public.

Wednesday’s meeting is scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. in the third-floor chamber at 1111 I St., Modesto.

This story was originally published August 16, 2015 at 3:55 PM with the headline "Focus groups, polls to reveal mood toward countywide transportation tax."