The rain is returning, the National Weather Service says. Between Monday and Friday morning, Modesto could receive up to 3 inches, according to the forecast.
That forecast comes with qualifiers, though. The weather service predicts half an inch to an inch of rain in Modesto from Monday through Tuesday but says it has “low confidence” in those amounts. It has “medium confidence” in the 1 to 2 inches predicted for Wednesday and Thursday.
“Wet pattern returns this week as multiple weather systems are forecast to impact interior NorCal,” the weather service’s Sacramento office said in a news release issued late Sunday morning. “A weak weather system will bring light showers to the Valley and mountains Monday through early Tuesday, with no impacts expected. Another storm could bring some heavier precipitation Tuesday night with moderate mountain snowfall at times. Mountain travel impacts are possible with this system.
“As of now, confidence is low in the strength of these storms Monday and Tuesday. However, confidence is higher for a moderate to strong winter storm impacting NorCal Wednesday through Thursday.”
The seven-day forecast for Modesto puts the chance of rain Monday as high as 80 percent. The chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday is 60 percent. It gives no percentage for Thursday, saying simply there will be rain.
There is a chance of showers Friday, then Saturday is expected to be partly sunny.
In other parts, the Wednesday-Thursday forecast is for 2 to 3 inches of rain in Sonora, and 3 to 4 inches in Yosemite. Tioga Pass could get 3 to 4 feet of snow, while the Sonora, Ebbetts and Carson passes could get 4 to 5 feet.
The weather service noted in a Facebook post early Sunday, “As the models get a better handle on the individual systems, these numbers will likely change some in the upcoming days.”