Ready for Round 2? More rain, wind forecast to hit Modesto region Tuesday
The next storm system moving through Northern California should be largely felt Tuesday and Wednesday in Stanislaus County and be colder and windier than the last, the National Weather Service predicts.
A precipitation forecast map issued Monday shows Modesto receiving 1 to 2 inches of rain through Wednesday. Weather service meteorologist Jason Clapp said he expects the rainfall will be closer to 1 inch than 2.
Still, a flood watch and flood warning for the area likely will remain in effect through Wednesday, he said. “The higher river levels won’t be able to recede much” between the last rain and the next, Clapp said from Sacramento. Runoff from the last storm will take days to make its way through the river system, “especially down in your area because it’s so flat” and the water runs relatively slowly, he said.
The flood stage of the Tuolumne River in Modesto is 55 feet. The U.S. Geological Survey showed it at 45.9 feet as of late Monday morning. A USGS forecast shows it peaking at just under 52 feet Wednesday, then receding through Saturday. Turlock Irrigation District records showed it flowing at 5,693 cubic feet per second midmorning Monday.
Dry Creek, notorious for flooding, has stayed to its banks this season. But American Legion Post 74, located at 1001 S. Santa Cruz Ave., just north of Legion Park on the Tuolumne, is taking no chances. The threat of flooding led the veterans service organization to move most of its equipment out of the building and into storage. Consequently, its monthly dinner, scheduled for Tuesday, and monthly breakfast, scheduled for Sunday, have been canceled.
In the January 1997 flooding, “the small hall was completely submerged and the large hall was flooded all the way to the roof,” said Becky Crow, Post 74 adjutant. “In light of that, we thought it was prudent to get as much out as we could, given the weather forecast by Saturday morning.”
In advance of the storm that moved through the region Saturday through Monday, the weather service issued a forecast saying Modesto could get 3 to 4 inches of rain. But according to Modesto Irrigation District measurements, 0.79 inches fell downtown Saturday, 0.77 Sunday and 0.18 in the early hours Monday.
The bull’s eye of the storm tracked farther north than expected, Clapp said.
This next storm will be maybe two-thirds the strength of the last, he said. The weather service forecast says Sonora can expect 2 to 3 inches of precipitation, and Yosemite 3 to 4 inches.
The service’s snow forecast through Wednesday is broken down by routes. Along Highway 4, Arnold could get 6 to 8 inches, and Bear Valley 48 to 60. Along Highway 108, Twain Harte could get 3 to 4 inches, Mi-Wuk Village 8 to 12, and Strawberry, 36 to 48. And on Highway 120, the area of Big Oak Flat Road is looking at 8 to 12 inches.
Wind could be a big issue in this storm. The weather service says strong winds from the south could bring gusts of 50 mph or more in lower elevations, 65 mph or more at higher elevations. It warns the gusts could lead to falling trees and branches, downed power lines and moderate-size power failures. Again, though, Clapp said the strongest winds are likely to be felt north of Modesto, in Stockton and Sacramento.
To report a power failure to MID, call 209-526-8222, day or night. To report one to Turlock Irrigation District, call the 24-hour service line at 209-883-8301.
Tuesday will bring a 90 percent chance of rain, the weather services says, with thunderstorms also possible after 4 p.m. The high should be near 56 degrees. The chance of precipitation Tuesday night rises to 100 percent, again with up to half an inch possible.
On Wednesday, there’s a 40 percent chance of showers, mainly before 4 p.m. Otherwise, the day should be partly sunny, with a high near 56. The chance of rain Wednesday night is 60 percent – mainly after 10 p.m.
There’s a 50 percent chance of showers Thursday, which otherwise will be partly sunny, with a high near 53.
No rain is in the forecast for the remainder of the week.
Deke Farrow: 209-578-2327
Flood Watch vs. Warning
Flood warning: Take action! A flood warning is issued when the hazardous weather event is imminent or already happening. A flood warning is issued when flooding is imminent or occurring.
Flood watch: Be prepared. A flood watch is issued when conditions are favorable for a specific hazardous weather event to occur. A flood watch is issued when conditions are favorable for flooding. It does not mean flooding will occur, but it is possible.
Source: National Weather Service
This story was originally published January 9, 2017 at 3:17 PM with the headline "Ready for Round 2? More rain, wind forecast to hit Modesto region Tuesday."