The plight before Christmas: A couple of stormy travel days ahead

Dreaming of a sunny Christmas? If you stick to the Northern San Joaquin Valley, it looks like your dream will come true.

But some of the days between now and then will be a different matter, say National Weather Service meteorologists.

If you plan to travel – well, anything goes, depending on where you go. And, according to projections by AAA Northern California, you’ll be in the company of a record-breaking number of Californians also traveling for the holidays.

AAA predicts that about 12.4 million Golden State residents will celebrate Christmas and New Year’s festivities on the road, in a period stretching from Friday through Jan. 2. That’s a 1.8 percent increase over last year.

The weather service’s Sacramento office says the best day to travel is Thursday, while it remains clear in Northern California. For Modesto, the day should be mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

Thursday night, there’s a 30 percent chance of rain in Modesto, the weather service says. New precipitation should amount to less than a tenth of an inch.

Rain is likely – a 60 percent chance – in Modesto on Friday, mainly after 11 a.m. Otherwise, the day should be mostly cloudy with a high near 56. A south-southeast wind of 17 to 22 mph is forecast for the morning, and winds could gust as high as 29 mph.

The chance of rain increases Friday night to 70 percent, then lowers to 50 percent for Saturday, which will see a high temperature near 53.

The chance of rain decreases to “slight” on Saturday night, which is Christmas Eve, then Christmas Day should be mostly sunny with a high near 51 degrees.

For travelers, the strong weather system moving through Northern California early Friday into Saturday is “expected to cause substantial headaches to travel leading up to Christmas,” according to a weather summary from the weather service. “The greatest impact is for the mountains, where heavy snow with gusty winds and low snow levels will likely cause significant travel delays with potential whiteout conditions. A few inches of snow are possible into the foothills late Friday night into Saturday.”

The weather service’s precipitation forecast for Friday and Saturday says Modesto, Stockton, Sacramento and San Francisco each could receive between half an inch and an inch of rain, while Sonora could see 1 to 2 inches.

The snow forecast for Friday and Saturday shows the Tioga, Sonora, Ebbetts, Carson and Echo passes each getting 18 to 24 inches. Donner Pass is predicted to get 24 to 30 inches.

“More Californians will travel to celebrate the holidays than ever before,” said AAA Northern California spokeswoman Cynthia Harris. “Rising incomes and a desire to gather with family and friends should make this the most-traveled holiday season ever recorded.”

AAA estimates 10.9 million Californians traveling during Christmas and New Year’s Day weekend will drive to their destinations. More than 1 million will travel by air.

AAA said about 400,000 state residents are expected to travel by other modes of transportation, including boats and trains.

This story was originally published December 21, 2016 at 7:24 PM with the headline "The plight before Christmas: A couple of stormy travel days ahead."