It's Jake Long, then fun begins
As is custom, the NFL invited a group of top prospects to sit in the green room during today's draft in New York and shake hands with Commissioner Roger Goodell when their names are called. This exercise will provide little suspense for Michigan's Jake Long.
The Miami Dolphins signed Long to a $57.5 million, five-year contract three days ago and will go through the motions of selecting him first overall.
However, Long is the only one in this group who will enter today certain of where he will end up.
Defensive linemen Glenn Dorsey of Louisiana State, Vernon Gholston of Ohio State and Chris Long of Virginia will join Arkansas running back Darren McFadden and Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan at Radio City Music Hall and should go in the top 10.
The order in which they will be selected remains extremely difficult to forecast.
"With so much fluidity at the top, so many players are equal at the top of the board," said ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper. "There are a lot of factors that contribute to that, including things that have transpired the last few months and workouts not going so well. It's typical of what happens, but this year there are some factors that have made it a very compelling draft."
An example occurred at the NFL scouting combine in February, when news circulated that there were serious concerns about Dorsey because of a stress fracture in his right tibia that he suffered in 2006.
The Rams, who hold the second choice overall, have Dorsey as the top-rated player on their draft board, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. But the newspaper also reported some members of the Rams front office believe that Chris Long should be the selection.
The Rams will be followed by the Falcons, who would love to get a shot at Dorsey but also could answer a big-time need at quarterback by taking the 6-5, 228-pound Ryan. Baltimore covets Ryan at No. 8, and if Atlanta doesn't take him, there is a chance he could fall. And that doesn't factor in the teams that might try to trade up to select Ryan and take the Ravens out of the picture.
"The draft is a funny thing," Ryan told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "Not many people give you information as to what's going on. A lot of things depend on what shakes out early in the draft, who goes to which team and how certain things are going to play out. I wish I had a better feel for it, but your guess is as good as mine."
McFadden also has been left to guess as to where he will be heading. The Raiders could grab McFadden at No. 4 and hope he can approach the production Adrian Peterson provided the Vikings last season. The Jets hold the selection two picks after the Raiders and have been mentioned in connection with McFadden.
The New York Post, however, reported Friday that the Jets have been working the phone lines and are considering moving down in order to obtain more picks.
The 49ers have to wait until the 29th pick of the first round.
It appears unlikely that any of the prospects invited to the draft will experience the same-type of embarrassing free-fall that quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Brady Quinn did. Rodgers, a former Cal star, did not go until the 24th pick in 2005, when Green Bay took him. Last year, Quinn lasted until No. 22, when Cleveland traded for that pick to select him.
One saving grace is that players tumbling won't have to wait as long for the free-fall to end. The NFL has reduced the amount of time between picks in the first round from 15 to 10 minutes; the time between second-round picks will be seven minutes instead of 10.
This story was originally published April 26, 2008 at 4:09 AM with the headline "It's Jake Long, then fun begins."