Despite slow start to Tahoe snow season, a ‘Christmas miracle’ is still possible
Winter in the Sierra Nevada has kicked off somewhat disappointingly. Natural snow has yet to fall in December as ski areas are desperately running snow blowers to avoid shutting down before the holidays.
But don’t put away your snow boots or skis just yet. Long-range weather models for the last two weeks of the year are sparking glimmers of hope in Lake Tahoe-area forecasters like Bryan Allegretto.
“Today was probably the first time I had a positive attitude (about the weather),” said Allegretto, who works with weather forecasting site OpenSnow . “I’m feeling better, I was pretty down a few days ago.”
Here’s what to know.
How much snow has the Lake Tahoe area received so far in late 2025?
Data from UC Berkeley’s Central Sierra Snow Lab shows that, as of Thursday, Dec. 11, the Soda Springs research facility has only gotten 22 inches of snowfall in the 2026 water year, which started Oct. 1.
That represents only 43% of the median snowfall to-date for the current water year. The most recent sprinkling was on Nov. 20, which added just over an inch to the total.
Allegretto said having a slow start to the winter is not completely out of the ordinary. He estimates it happens roughly once every four years. The last time he remembers a similar early season was in 2023-2024, which saw only 25% of the typical snowpack by January.
“There’s been a lot of years where, even getting to the end of December, there’s not a lot of snow yet,” he said. “It really cranks up in January, so I’m not that worried. It’s not atypical to really get the storms going in full force right around Christmas through the rest of the season.”
Are ski resorts in the Sierra Nevada open yet?
Some ski areas around the Lake Tahoe area have managed to open — albeit with extremely limited operations.
Resorts like Boreal Mountain in Soda Springs, Palisades Tahoe in Olympic Valley and Northstar California in Truckee have only a small section of beginner terrain open. Areas like Diamond Peak in Incline Village and Sugar Bowl in Norden have yet to open a single run.
In late November, various resorts, including Boreal, Northstar and Heavenly Mountain Resort in South Lake Tahoe pushed back their original opening dates following the poor early snowpack. While the meager snow layer has only been enough to keep mostly small bunny hills open, Tahoe-area ski officials aren’t too concerned yet.
“A slow start to winter doesn’t guarantee a bad snow season, and it can be overcome by persistent, heavy winter storms leading to epic conditions,” said Ski California President John Rice in an emailed statement. “We’re optimistic that the weather will be in our favor soon, and buoyed by the fact that historically, we get the majority of snowfall between December and February each year.”
Data from the Central Sierra Snow Lab indicates the median snowfall in the first three months of the water year is about 93 inches, while the following three months can bring more than 230 inches to the Sierra.
When will Tahoe finally get a snow storm?
Allegretto is cautiously optimistic over what current weather prediction models indicate. For the first time in weeks, most models are in consensus that there could be snowfall in the next two weeks, he said.
“All the models are pretty much showing the same thing, and they’re showing it ... for three days now, which is more consistency than we’ve seen in a suggestion for storms in weeks,” Allegretto said.
According to Allegretto, a weather system appears to be poised to descend into Northern California from the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday, initially bringing warm air and rain to the mountains. However, in the latter half of the week, there is a chance of cold air turning the rain into snow, he said.
Entering the week of Christmas, the weather conditions could become ideal for a heavier snow storm, which could dump a few inches or multiple feet, Allegretto said.
“Obviously anything that’s 10-plus days out is still like, we don’t trust it. But we trust it (more) every day that it continues to show (the approaching weather pattern),” he said. “So the confidence is growing.”
While Allegretto said he still does not trust the longer-range models predicting multiple weeks out, he said a “Christmas miracle scenario” is still possible.
“The driest (models) show 2 inches of liquid precipitation between Dec. 20 and 25, and the wettest one showed 12 inches,” he said. “So that could be anywhere from like, 20 inches to 120 inches of snow.”
“Worst case scenario is we’re getting some snow,” Allegretto said. “Best case scenario ... I don’t even want to utter the words but some of those models are showing crazy amounts of snow.”
This story was originally published December 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM with the headline "Despite slow start to Tahoe snow season, a ‘Christmas miracle’ is still possible."
