What to look for in Modesto and Stanislaus County in Nov. 3 election
With nine days remaining until the Nov. 3 election, here are nine things to keep an eye on locally:
- Modesto mayor. With eight names on the ballot, it’s the largest field in four decades, and perhaps six of them — Sue Zwahlen, Kristi Ah You, Doug Ridenour, Rick Countryman, Naramsen Goriel and incumbent Ted Brandvold — have legitimate chances of moving to a Feb. 2 top-two runoff. It’s one of the most exciting mayoral races in recent memory.
All three Modesto City Council races are intriguing as well. As is the thought of a newly constituted council with the will to break Modesto out of its doldrums. We’re looking for big things from this next group.
- Which candidates will go negative? Most local races have stayed surprisingly positive — except for the one between incumbent Democratic Congressman Josh Harder and challenger Ted Howze, which turned ugly early. Don’t expect either to let up in the next nine days.
Don’t expect an upset, either. The deluxe version of Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight model — which factors in polling, fundraising, historic voting patterns and experts’ predictions — shows Harder winning in 91% of 40,000 simulations. That translates to a forecast of Harder winning about 56% of the vote; for context, he got 52.3% to oust Jeff Denham two years ago.
Howze can’t be thrilled by data gleaned from ballots already returned. Although actual votes have not been revealed, Political Data Inc. does track numbers by party, and as of Thursday, 41% of Modesto ballots had been cast by Democrats compared to 33% by Republicans. Because the far right-leaning Howze does not appeal to many Democratic voters, to win he would have to claim a substantial share of remaining ballots from voters with no party preference.
Campaigning in Modesto and Turlock
- I expect GOP turnout in Turlock, however, to be robust, because whether he actually lives there, Howze once served on its City Council and many there support him even if state and national party leaders don’t. And higher Republican turnout bodes ill for Turlock’s Measure A, a three-quarter-cent sales tax hike, because Republicans tend to support such measures less than other parties.
- How will candidates reach out to last-minute voters? We’ll see even more mailers, telephone calls and maybe some radio or even TV ads.
I was impressed to learn from Serena Robinson that Modesto mayoral candidates Goriel and Ridenour gave more than an hour of their time to young scouts — cub, girl and boy — at a flag ceremony and Q&A session in Modesto’s Sipherd Park. Some parents in attendance may have been voters, but otherwise the candidates were just being good examples to impressionable youths, our future leaders.
- Speaking of Ridenour, I laughed out loud at a campaign mailer with a photo showing him as a very young Modesto Police officer — so long ago that you barely recognize the man. Not that it’s unusual for candidates to use pictures from their pasts; state Senate candidate Susan Talamantes Eggman uses a photo from her days as an Army medic decades ago, for instance. A mailer from Stanislaus supervisor candidate Buck Condit resembles a family photo album — at least he’s recognizable in some pics. And no one is surprised that Modesto Irrigation District candidate Suzy Powell Roos, a three-time Olympian, uses a shot of her throwing the discus in her younger years.
- My nominee for best campaign flier is another from Powell Roos with huge letters on one side reading: “Don’t vote for a woman ... “ What the heck? You flip it over and see how the sentence continues: “... vote for a leader,” and then it makes sense. That’s how you grab attention. Very clever.
- Personally, I see little downside to GOP ballot boxes, unofficial though they may be. Yes, it would have been better to follow the law. But in principle, helping more people to vote is a good thing.
On the election backstretch
My last two points actually are things not to look for, because they won’t be found.
- Long lines at voting stations. That’s one benefit to all-mail elections.
- Widespread voting fraud in Stanislaus County.
Having tried to reassure readers in a previous column, I’m still getting notes from people with anecdotal examples of what might be errors at the elections office. I respond (patiently, I hope) that isolated mistakes do not constitute the massive elections fraud warned of by alarmists, the kind that might skew results to favor one side over another.
I neglected, in that previous column, to note two factors that might help to calm conservative nerves: First, Stanislaus County Clerk-Recorder Donna Linder, whose longer official title includes registrar of voters, is Republican and has no personal agenda to sweep Democrats to victory. Second, longtime GOP boss and county Supervisor Jim DeMartini has closely observed ballot processing in person in just about every election for many years; if he had witnessed even a shred of impropriety in that time, don’t you think we would have heard all about it?
And yes, DeMartini is on the job; he officially accepted the duty of representing our Board of Supervisors to witness tallying this time, too.
This story was originally published October 25, 2020 at 6:00 AM.
