Why California agrees with Stanislaus County’s reopening do-over

Stanislaus County leaders must have suspected that their first Hail Mary application to the state asking to get a jump on reopening the economy would be dead on arrival last week. And it was.

Local officials could not get past the very first requirement — no deaths and fewer than 56 new COVID-19 cases in the previous two weeks — on a form requesting a variance, or relaxing of the state’s pandemic isolation rules. The quick rejection meant that most Stanislaus companies would have to wait longer to resume business.

However, at about the same time that California officials were quickly stamping “Denied” on Stanislaus’ application, they also were revising variance rules. The changes, announced by Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday, will allow us to move further into the next reopening phase, Stanislaus leaders cheerfully remarked when agreeing Tuesday to try again with a made-over submission.

Their second application deserved to be met with success, and on Wednesday, it did.

The first application was doomed from the start, thanks to the state’s ridiculous no-deaths-in-14-days benchmark. Since our first COVID-19 death in mid-April, we have not gone longer than eight days without a death, and usually it’s a day or two. The requirement was silly because it applied to all counties without regard to size, putting Stanislaus (population 554,018) in the same basket as Alpine (1,149) and Los Angeles (10 million).

Twenty four of California’s 58 counties quickly obtained the coveted variance, while most of the 34 others — including ours — stood little to no chance in the near future. With luck, we might have cleared the high bar in several months, while larger counties might never have.

Stanislaus’ first variance request had other problems. Aside from the death and case counts, for example, our county had not yet hired the requisite number (83) of contact tracers, who investigate how each person was infected.

The county’s Board of Supervisors’ misguided act of civil disobedience — a public vote announcing that enforcers would look the other way if a local business chose to defy the state’s reopening protocol — did not improve their chances.

At the end of the first application, where a public health officer is supposed to certify that her county has met the state’s requirements, Dr. Julie Vaishampayan could not. She did her best to argue with data points she felt more appropriate, but it wasn’t enough.

Stanislaus finds strength in numbers

There is zero chance that state officials thoughtfully reviewed the Stanislaus application and said, “Hmm ... Maybe we should reconsider our metrics.” They reconsidered because 30-plus counties, anxious to revive an economy on life support, were united in a near-state of rebellion.

Stanislaus’ second variance application, approved by state officials Wednesday, succeeded because this time we have fulfilled the state’s demands, which are based on medical science and better sense. We have flattened the now-famous curve by mostly observing personal distance, slowing the coronavirus’ spread and leaving our hospitals half-empty instead of overwhelmed.

A comprehensive local plan to guide our reopening, developed with the help of many respected Stanislaus business leaders, served as extra credit when the state graded our new application. The impressive document is called Good 2 Go Stanislaus.

This time, Vaishampayan signed the mandated attestation instead of being forced to make up her own.

No time for “anything goes,” people

In no way does this mean we are out of the woods.

It’s concerning that many people are not wearing face coverings in public, as strongly recommended by local, state and national medical experts. Stubbornness puts both scofflaws and others at risk when distances of six feet cannot be maintained.

If more people circulating leads to spikes in positive cases, Stanislaus has a detailed containment plan. If this happens, it must be rigorously followed, even if it means reverting to a partial shutdown. Lives are at stake.

The success of reopening, which can happen immediately for some businesses, will depend less on government metrics and more on personal choice, or whether customers feel safe enough to visit shops, stores and restaurants. Note that the coming phase does not yet allow religious services, gyms, or nail or hair salons, which will wait for a later phase.

It also will depend on our ability to keep COVID numbers relatively stable. That can only happen if we continue to keep our distance, wash our hands and stay home if we’re sick. We’ve already proved that that works.

This story was originally published May 20, 2020 at 8:40 AM.