Passage of Prop. 50 scrambles California politics. Who will run and where? | Opinion
And so the jockeying begins.
California voters’ approval of Proposition 50 will unleash political chess games throughout the state, as Democrats and Republicans with congressional aspirations will soon be announcing their next moves.
The most complicated political map of them all is likely in Sacramento, where the liberal urban core has been carved into three congressional districts.
“Open congressional seats don’t come around a lot,” said Sacramento-based Democratic strategist Andrew Acosta. “There’s like a blood-in-the-water mentality, and all the sharks come out.”
The passage of Prop. 50 redraws California’s 52 congressional districts, some more than others. The not-so-secret goal of Democrats behind Prop. 50 is to unseat five of nine Republicans currently representing different corners of the state. Redrawing lines is just the first chapter of this saga. What’s about to come next?
The dance between Kevin Kiley and Ami Bera
Republican Kevin Kiley has been representing conservative Placer County (and a vast swath of the eastern state) for two terms in the 3rd district, and Prop. 50 redraws his district deep into Sacramento. Meanwhile, just to his west, Democrat Ami Bera of the 6th district has represented one district or another since 2013, currently representing northern Sacramento County from North Natomas to Rancho Murieta.
The new 6th district continues to lean left, but represents less of Sacramento County (such as Rancho Cordova) and now reaches Roseville and Rocklin in Placer County.
With the Prop. 50 victory secured Tuesday night, Bera promptly announced that he would run for re-election in the new 3rd district, which will stretch from Tahoe Park in Sacramento east to Lake Tahoe. He said he has represented most of this district in his 12-year congressional career.
“I have to pick one,” Bera said Tuesday night. He went with the district that is “60% in Sacramento County.”
Former State Senator Richard Pan, a Sacramento Democrat, had already announced he plans to run in the 3rd district, but Tuesday night announced he was running for the 6th district.
Who else will jump in? We’ll know soon enough. But if Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho wants to run for Congress in a wide open race, or State Senator Angelique Ashby, or Sheriff Jim Cooper, now is that rare opening.
There is just as much mystery on the Republican side of the aisle. Kiley could legally choose to run in either district. The 6th now includes some friendly Placer communities.
Where does he land? “If I’m Kiley, I’m sort of letting some of this play out,” Acosta said.
The Republicans who are battle tested...
Elsewhere in California, Prop. 50 takes square aim at some Republicans who have had their share of tough races. In greater Fresno, David Valadao leads the 22nd district and has weathered tough races. So have Ken Calvert of Riverside County (32 years in Congress) and Darrell Issa of San Diego County (20 years).
Issa is in trouble because he lost Republican enclaves like Poway and gained liberal hotbeds like Palm Springs. Calvert’s district, meanwhile, jettisoned some of the more-conservative Inland Empire in exchange for a left-leaning part of Los Angeles County.
These two may not have new maps on their side, Acosta said, but they have one important advantage. They are battle tested from years of races and their Democratic adversaries most likely are not.
“There are very few Democrats in the state that have had a tough race at all,” Acosta said.
...and the one who isn’t.
And then there is the Republican who has had life comparatively easy for 12 years, Doug LaMalfa of the Sacramento Valley’s 1st district. The fourth-generation rice farmer has had the political luxury of living in a pretty red part of the state. But now his district was intentionally redrawn westward to go over the hill to include blue Santa Rosa.
LaMalfa got a small taste of his future in August, when he held an in-person town hall in Chico and got an ear-full from constituents about his support of cutting the federal Medicaid health care program as part of President Trump’s tax and spending plan known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” LaMalfa is in for the race of his life and headed toward a crash course in Sonoma County politics.
What will happen?
The big questions in California politics — who will be the next governor, will Prop. 50 flip seats as intended — remain just that. Prop. 50 has set the stage. But too many plots have yet to reveal themselves.
“No one knows how to handicap this,” Acosta said, “until you see who is in the race.”
This story was originally published November 4, 2025 at 8:47 PM with the headline "Passage of Prop. 50 scrambles California politics. Who will run and where? | Opinion."