Anxious about close Central Valley House races? Expert says watch these states Election Day
Looking for clues on close races in California’s Central Valley soon after Election Day? It might be worth watching results in Arizona and Nevada.
The Central Valley, California’s agricultural center, has two of the most competitive House of Representatives races in the country. It likely won’t be clear who wins California’s 13th and 22nd Congressional Districts for weeks after Nov. 5 because of how close the contests are and the state’s slower ballot counting.
If Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, comes out strongly ahead in the 2024 battlegrounds of Nevada and Arizona, that might be good news for Democratic challengers in rematches for the 13th and 22nd, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc. and owner of Redistricting Partners.
While there are differences, Nevada, Arizona and the Central Valley are similar in that they have a politically mixed electorate that has shown it’s willing to elect Democrats or Republicans. Harris and former President Donald Trump, the GOP presidential nominee, are in tight contests in all three regions.
“Those numbers in those Nevada, Arizona states reflect a kind of Central Valley-ish electorate in some ways,” Mitchell said in an interview. “Swing year, more conservative electorate that sometimes elects Democrats sometimes elects Republicans. And it speaks to the kind of potential for a ‘rising tide for all boats’ if Kamala is starting to make big gains.”
“On the flip side, if Kamala starts to implode and Donald Trump is winning Nevada and Arizona by bigger numbers, and he starts winning the Midwest, he starts winning in the national polling average — at that point, it might be really hard to impossible for Democrats to hold on to these seats,” Mitchell said. “Because there is this macro environment of the presidential race, and these races don’t exist in a bubble.”
Harris and Trump are in a dead heat for Nevada and Arizona. Trump was up 2 percentage points in Arizona and Harris was up 1 percentage point in Nevada in Emerson College Polling conducted in early October. The polls surveyed 1,000 likely voters in Arizona and 900 in Nevada.
Less than a third of Nevada voters are registered as Democrats, 29% are Republicans and 37% are unaffiliated as of this month. More than a third of Arizona voters were GOP, 29% were Democratic and over a third had other labels as of this summer.
President Joe Biden barely edged out Trump in both states in 2020, mostly by carrying urban regions holding Las Vegas, Reno, Phoenix and Tucson, as well as Native American land.
Harris had a healthy lead over Trump in California in a Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll published Thursday. But their contest was neck-and-neck in the Central Valley, where 47% of respondents preferred Harris and 46% picked Trump. The poll was conducted the last week of September among 3,045 Californians.
Harris led Trump in the 22nd by more than 7 percentage points, according to California Elections and Policy Polls completed in September. Harris led by just over 3 percentage points in the 13th.
The 13th and 22nd are among many key California tossups that could tilt control of the House toward Democrats in 2025.
In the 13th, freshman Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, faces former Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced. In the 22nd, Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, competes with former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield. Gray and Salas slightly led GOP incumbents in the California Elections and Policy Polls. But their advantage was within the polls’ margin of error, affirming the races could go either way.
The 13th and 22nd have more registered Democrats than Republicans and a growing no-party-preference bloc. The districts would have picked Biden over Trump by more than 10 percentage points in 2020 had current legislative maps been in place. Congressional districts were redrawn after the 2020 Census.
In each, about 41% of voters registered as Democrats, less than 30% were Republicans and more than a fifth were no-party preference as of September.
The majority of the voting-age population in each is Latino and both have a growing number of voters under 35 — two groups that have historically leaned Democratic in California, and had very low 2022 turnout in these districts. Experts think turnout will be high this November.
Among California Latino voters, 54% of respondents to the Berkeley IGS poll preferred Harris and 35% chose Trump. Three-fifths of likely voters under age 30 picked Harris while 30% backed Trump.
“Vice President Kamala Harris’ strengths with Latino voters, particularly issues impacting Latina women, such as housing, reproductive rights, and healthcare could offer important insights for California’s Central Valley battlegrounds,” said Pablo Rodriguez, founding Executive Director of Communities for a New California Education Fund, which works on voter engagement in the Central Valley.
“However,” he said, “while these issues resonate, the Valley’s unique concerns, like water access and agricultural policy, may shape the election differently than in Arizona or Nevada where water and agriculture don’t resonate with the same magnitude.”
“Latino voters are a key demographic,” Rodriguez said, “and while Harris’ performance in Nevada and Arizona could provide a useful signal, ultimately, Democratic candidates in all three states must provide clear plans to address the issues impacting their families in order to earn their votes.”
Harris has been campaigning in Nevada and Arizona the past couple days. Trump is hitting Nevada, California and Arizona Friday and this weekend.
This story was originally published October 11, 2024 at 8:39 AM with the headline "Anxious about close Central Valley House races? Expert says watch these states Election Day."
