Modesto’s zero-homicide year stands out — but experts urge caution
Modesto recorded zero homicides in 2025, marking the city’s first year without a killing in at least four decades, according to Modesto police. It’s a milestone that comes as violent crime declines across much of the country.
While city officials say the outcome is worth noting, both police and outside experts caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from a single year, particularly as researchers point to broader national trends that have driven homicide rates down since peaking during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“For Modesto, this is the first zero-homicide year on record since 1985,” Modesto Police Department spokesperson Sharon Bear said. Records prior to that year are not readily available, the department said.
Other midsize California cities have continued to report lethal violence at levels above zero. Stockton, for example, had a murder rate around 13.3 per 100,000 residents as of late 2025 — among the highest in the state for cities over 100,000 people — according to state and local crime data. By contrast, cities including Bakersfield, Riverside, Anaheim and Chula Vista reported lower rates but still recorded multiple homicides, and California’s statewide homicide rate was about 4.3 per 100,000 residents in 2024.
Even so, Modesto’s experience mirrors a broader pattern seen in cities across the U.S., according to Dr. Garen J. Wintemute, director of the Centers for Violence Prevention at UC Davis.
“Modesto’s good news is part of a national trend,” Wintemute said. “Cities all over the country have reported steep declines in homicide since rates peaked during the COVID pandemic.”
Wintemute pointed to major metropolitan areas that have seen dramatic reductions in recent years, including Los Angeles, Baltimore and Chicago. “These are trends over several years, and they’re very good news,” he said.
Still, Wintemute cautioned that researchers generally avoid making predictions based on a single year of data.
“A year with unexpectedly low homicide numbers is obviously good news, and it’s worth trying hard to find the explanation,” he said. “Lots can happen from year to year, though, and researchers don’t generally make predictions from single-year results.”
Modesto police echoed that view, saying that maintaining the city’s progress into 2026 will require continued investment and vigilance. “Looking ahead to 2026, sustaining this will require continued investment in high-quality training for our personnel and effective use of technology,” Bear said.
Police officials said the department closely monitors early indicators that could signal a rebound in violence, including local crime trends within the city and county and any uptick in gang-related activity.
For Modesto, city officials and researchers alike say the focus now is on whether the city can turn a single-year milestone into a sustained pattern.
The city’s zero-homicide tally does not include a fatal officer-involved shooting earlier this year, which Modesto police classify separately from criminal homicides. Police have said the case remains under investigation, as is standard, and has not been counted toward the city’s annual homicide total.
“Trends are something else again,” Wintemute said. “And we’re seeing positive trends in cities across the country.”
