Stanislaus unemployment keeps pace with the state, but expert warns of upcoming divide
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Stanislaus County’s unemployment rate fell in September, continuing a trend of recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The rate in the Stanislaus County was 6.9% in September, down from 8% in August, according to data from the state’s Employment Development Department. Local data is not seasonally adjusted.
Statewide, unemployment held steady at 7.5%, unchanged from August’s numbers. The national joblessness rate in September was 4.8%, down from 5.2% in August, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In September 2020, Stanislaus reported 10.3% unemployment, compared with 10.6% in California and 7.9% nationally.
Jeff Michael, the director of public policy programs at Pacific McGeorge School of Law, said that September’s numbers reinforce the county and state’s expected trajectory of recovery from the economic effects of the pandemic. Michael said he and other economists forecast long-term recovery to set in in late 2021 and through 2022.
The latest numbers support this.
“That’s pretty good recovery,” he said, “(even though it’s been) a little slower in recent months.”
Locally, some industries faced minor job losses month-over-month, but gains were seen in government, as well as business and professional services. Statewide, most sectors saw gains, especially the leisure and hospitality industry, which was decimated early in the pandemic and has been struggling to recover.
Stanislaus has a relatively small hospitality and tourism sector, Michael noted, making the county’s job growth less contingent upon that industry’s recovery.
This helps explain why Stanislaus — a county that pre-pandemic often clocked higher unemployment rates than other parts of the state or California as a whole — is matching or outpacing the state in its economic recovery. As long-term recovery sets in, however, Michael expects the Stanislaus jobless rate to once again climb higher than the state’s.
“The gap is is starting to reemerge again as things normalize,” he said.
Looking toward the upcoming holiday season, Michael said he expects an increase in consumer spending and an uptick in the employment numbers, courtesy of seasonal hiring.
“I don’t think we’ll see the same sort of retail surge and crowding in the malls that we’ve seen in the past, but the spending will be there,” Michael said.
This story was produced with financial support from the Stanislaus Community Foundation, along with the GroundTruth Project’s Report for America initiative. The Modesto Bee maintains full editorial control of this work.
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This story was originally published October 23, 2021 at 6:42 AM.
