Stanislaus County fails to meet red tier coronavirus criteria. Tier status in jeopardy
A state evaluation found that Stanislaus County has an increase in coronavirus transmission that could trigger tighter restrictions on businesses and activities.
The California Department of Public Health released an update Wednesday showing the county’s adjusted COVID-19 case rate was 7.9 per 100,000, which falls under the purple tier of the state’s blueprint for slowing the pandemic.
Stanislaus will be in danger of slipping back from the red tier to purple, which is most restrictive, if similar numbers are in next week’s update. The county needs a case rate below 7 per 100,000 to remain in the red category with its lighter restrictions on restaurants, retail stores, gyms and churches.
The state adjusts the rate higher if the amount of coronavirus testing in the county is less than the state median. The Stanislaus case rate was adjusted from 7.6 to 7.9, according to a state website. The county’s test positivity rate of 4.2 percent was up from 3.9 percent a week ago, but it still falls within the orange tier for counties with moderate disease transmission.
The states looks at three criteria — daily case rate, test positivity and a health metric for disadvantaged neighborhoods — in assigning counties to the purple, red, orange or yellow tiers.
The state says it’s providing “supportive engagement” to Stanislaus County to help with reversing a recent upward trend in infections.
Dr. Mark Ghaly, secretary of the California Health & Human Services Agency, said the state provides the assistance to counties that miss their data results for one week. Under the state’s stringent program, two consecutive weeks of not meeting the criteria can trigger a tier reassignment.
Stanislaus County has been assigned to the red tier since Oct. 12.
“We are working with the state to see what we can do to minimize the spread and monitor our cases to see if there’s something we can do better,” said Kamlesh Kaur, a health educator for the county. “I can’t say one way or the other if we will move to the purple tier next week, but our numbers show we are at risk of rolling back to purple tier.”
The county could file an adjudication claim, to make sure its data is complete and accurate, in the event case numbers are shown to exceed the red tier limit next week. It’s possible the process could delay a tier demotion for a week or so.
The state also could allow the county to stay in the current tier for a time if data in the past 10 days show signs of improvement.
The county Health Services Agency plans more pop-up testing to make tests more accessible to residents or neighborhoods that are vulnerable to transmission of COVID-19 illness.
Wednesday, it also recommended testing for community members who attended recent gatherings and might have been exposed to the coronavirus. Testing was recommended even for those without symptoms. Local health officials were concerned about recent Halloween gatherings.
“A lot of cases we are seeing lately are from household gatherings,” Kaur said. “We are encouraging community members to avoid that or stay safe if they hold gatherings.”
Cooler weather, along with the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, will create the next challenge for keeping the contagious illness from spreading among family members or groups of friends. The state is expected to release guidelines for smaller, safe gatherings that might be held outdoors with California’s milder climate.
Residents who think they’ve been exposed to coronavirus were encouraged to take a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) swab test. Testing will determine if they are infected and keep them from spreading COVID-19 to family members, friends or co-workers, a county news release said.
People can sign up for free testing conducted at the Salida Library on Sisk Road, the Neighborhood Center at Marshall Park on Chicago Avenue in west Modesto, and the Rube Boesch Center on Orange Street in Turlock.
A return to the purple tier would interrupt business activity around the holiday season. The county would have to live with the restrictions for at least three weeks. The county would need to record lower case numbers for two consecutive weeks to qualify for red status again.
Schools that opened for in-class instruction can stay open if the county rolls back to purple tier. Following the rise in cases, the number of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in Stanislaus County averaged 57 in the past seven days, compared to 44 in the previous seven-day period.
County public health urged people to take the standard precautions including face coverings, social distancing and frequent hand-washing.
Since the state established the more stringent blueprint Aug. 31, the number of counties in the purple tier has dropped from 38 to 10.
Ghaly said it’s not a foregone conclusion California will be struck by a recent surge in COVID-19 that’s shaken other regions of the United States. California’s positivity rate of 3.3 percent is about half the nationwide rate of 6.7 percent.
This story was originally published November 4, 2020 at 2:29 PM.
