The California Democrats unconvinced on redistricting and whether it will matter
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Have questions on redistricting? Join Sacramento Bee reporters for a live, virtual Q&A on Newsom’s redistricting plan. The event will take place Thursday, Aug. 28, at noon. Read more about the event here.
WILL DEM DISCOMFORT BE A REDISTRICTING DRAG?
What do a progressive lawmaker and a centrist one have in common?
Besides belonging to the same caucus, Assemblymembers Alex Lee and Jasmeet Bains were the only two Democrats to not support Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting response to Texas during last week’s floor vote. (Their colleague, Assemblymember Dawn Addis, was absent that day.)
Though the map would have benefitted her campaign challenging Rep. David Valadao, Bains joined Republicans in voting against it. Lee, who from the outset warned of a “race to the bottom,” abstained from voting.
Both declined interview requests.
Lee’s “previous opposition is already being used in mailers to progressives paid for by Republican megadonor Charles Munger Jr. that went out to Los Angeles-area voters earlier this week,” said Christian Grose, professor of political science and public policy at USC. “His abstention suggests he is trying to balance his previous remarks with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party going all out” in support of it.
Grose said he couldn’t explain Bains’ vote, though the Bakersfield Democrat hasn’t shied away from breaking from her party on other issues.
Despite some hand-wringing from Democrats and independent voters, hyper-partisanship and Newsom’s framing of the entire issue will ultimately work in his favor, predicts ballot measure campaign veteran Brandon Castillo.
“Ballot measures don’t usually take the shape of candidate campaigns. They’re more focused on the issues,” he said. “But it’s inevitable this one’s going to become all about Trump and Republicans versus Democrats and Gavin Newsom.”
That dynamic is reflected in early polling. A Berkeley IGS poll found 69% of Democrats support the measure, while 72% of Republicans oppose it. No Party Preference voters appear conflicted: 44% said they’d support it, while 30% oppose it and 26% are undecided.
“It’s all about a fight for the middle,” Castillo said. “And you’ll probably have a much lower NPP turnout this election because they’re going to be turned off by all this partisanship.”
WILL SWING DISTRICTS TURN BLUER?
via David Lightman...
Rep. Adam Gray is regarded by independent analysts as one of the nation’s most vulnerable incumbents, and while the new California maps should help him, he’s no shoo-in.
But — he did beat Rep. John Duarte, a Republican, last year in a tough race.
So while Gray certainly picks up Democratic-leaning areas under the new map, it “would still leave the seat as a battleground,” said Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an independent organization that analyzes House races.
But, the Crystal Ball said, Gray was “an impressive winner in 2024 given the huge shift right in his district.”
At the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, U.S. House and governors’ races analyst Matthew Klein had similar views.
That “he defeated an incumbent with a decent amount of money is a testament to his political strength,” Klein said. “It’s safe to say he’d be considered a favorite on the new map.
The map must be approved by California voters in the Nov. 4 special election. Under current lines, Gray’s race is considered a tossup by both groups. Under the new map, it’s expected to shift to “lean Democratic.”
Republicans have been firing away at Gray.
“Out of touch Democrat Adam Gray is disenfranchising millions of California voters with a gerrymandered map drawn in the dark of night…shredding the California Constitution to cling to power. This is a brazen scam to let politicians pick their voters and silence anyone who gets in their way,” said Christian Martinez, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Democrats are confident about Gray’s chances.
“Adam is well positioned to win re-election because he knows the Valley and will always have their back on the issues that matter most,” said Anna Elsasser, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “From working to lower costs, deliver critical water projects and defend access to healthcare, Adam gets results and voters know they can trust him to put their priorities first.”
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“If you’ve been watching my Twitter feed, I’ve been doing what I can.”
–Gov. Gavin Newsom, responding to a Danish reporter about whether he would be the lead Democrat to face the Trump universe in the next election.
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This story was originally published August 25, 2025 at 4:55 AM with the headline "The California Democrats unconvinced on redistricting and whether it will matter."
