US budget debate foreshadows political battles to come. Will it help or hurt Californians?
While the Republican-led Senate passed a federal budget framework early Friday, much of its impact on Californians — and any final action — is still probably months away..
Chris Hoene, executive director of the nonpartisan California Budget & Policy Center, thought the impact could be felt as soon as the summer or fall.
Democrats spent much of the Thursday night and Friday morning debate warning of big cuts in health programs and more tax cuts for the rich.
While those efforts to block big cuts are likely in future budget plans, probably as soon as next week when the House considers its version of the budget, there’s nothing in the Senate blueprint to immediately address such cuts or taxes, said Marc Goldwein, senior vice president at the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a watchdog organization.
What the Senate’s 52 to 48 vote to approve the $340 billion budget plan Friday morning does is start a process that could make it easier for the Republican-led Congress to pass big changes in federal aid and taxes late this year. And it could expedite changes to border enforcement.
Padilla, Schiff say no
California’s two senators, both Democrats, voted against the budget Friday, as did every other senator who caucuses with Democrats. Every Republican except for Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., voted for it.
Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Calif., said the budget “does nothing to bring down prices or tackle inflation for working families. Instead, Republicans are laying the groundwork for massive cuts to critical programs that families across California rely on like Medicaid, Social Security and nutrition assistance.” Padilla is a member of the Senate Budget Committee.
Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., had the same view of the budget, and tried to amend it to block firefighter layoffs.
After wildfires devastated parts of the Los Angeles area, thousands of federal firefighters got layoff notices.
Schiff’s proposal called for reinstating firefighters laid off by the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency and exempting federal firefighters and Forest Service employees from the government’s ongoing hiring freeze.
His effort was defeated on a largely party line vote, 52 to 48. Among Republicans, only Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska voted yes.
Border and military security
The plan passed by the Senate emphasizes border security and military strength, two of the cornerstones of the 2024 Republican campaign. It would have the government spend as much as $175 billion on border security, including the U.S.-Mexico wall.
Also in the bill is an increase of $150 billion “to make our military more lethal,” said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. Another funding bloc would go to the Coast Guard.
Before any of this money can be spent, several more steps are needed. The House plans to consider its own version of the budget next week, and it’s expected to be far broader. It’s likely to include room for the massive tax and spending cuts Trump seeks.
If that’s approved, the House and Senate will need to agree on one version of the budget plan.
Once they do, congressional committees will decide precisely how the funds will be allocated, and the full Congress will have to approve its decisions.
The entire process is supposed to be done by Oct. 1, the start of the fiscal year, but almost never is.
What’s next
What all this means for Californians is unclear at this point.
The budgets are setting up a process that would probably mean big cuts in social programs, notably Medicaid, called Medi-Cal in California. The Senate budget Friday did not deal with most domestic programs, but Republicans say they don’t want to increase federal deficits and they do want lower taxes, so they’ll need to find reductions.
There’s great concern in California about cuts to Medi-Cal, which is funded partly with federal money and partly with state funds. About 15 million state residents rely on the program.
“It’s anticipated that federal policymakers in 2025 will introduce major changes to the Medicaid budget as well as to the regulations and rules governing the program,” said a web posting from the California Health Care Foundation.
The group said any large-scale changes would “have far-reaching consequences for California’s health care system and the millions of Californians enrolled in the program.”
Republicans are well aware of the political power of Democratic attacks on potential cuts. Alaska’s Sullivan won passage, on a largely party line vote, of an amendment he said would help Medicare and Medicaid.
On X, he thanked colleagues, saying “We’re going to strengthen and improve Medicaid for the most vulnerable populations, and strengthen Medicare so that it’s available for future generations.”
The start of the budget process is also a start to the path to extending most of the current 2017 Trump-supported tax cuts. For Californians, that could mean a lifting of the current limit on state and local tax deductions. But Democrats warn it could also mean big tax breaks for the wealthy.
In many ways, the debate throughout Thursday night and Friday morning was a preview of campaign battles to come.
While Democrats emphasized potential health and safety cuts and tax breaks for the wealthy during the debate, Republicans wanted to talk about the border and the military.
“Democrats are opposed to securing our border, rebuilding our military and unleashing American energy. Democrats are standing in the way of common-sense priorities that Americans overwhelmingly support,” said Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyoming.
“Democrats are a party in panic mode,” he said.
Not at all, according to Schiff. “To Republicans, gutting help for working and middle class families to pay for tax cuts for billionaires is a trade-off worth making. To me, it is not,” he said.
This story was originally published February 21, 2025 at 12:46 PM with the headline "US budget debate foreshadows political battles to come. Will it help or hurt Californians?."
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