A winter COVID surge is coming unless California vaccination rates improve. Here’s where we stand
Gov. Gavin Newsom in recent days has warned that Californians will need to keep on their masks ahead of an anticipated winter surge.
He points to Europe, once again the epicenter of the pandemic as hospitals flood with COVID-19 patients. Battling anti-vaccine sentiment and low immunization rates, Russia is also hitting new case records.
To avoid that fate in California, health experts are encouraging more people to get vaccinated.
“We can push up our vaccination rates much higher,” said Dr. George Rutherford, professor of epidemiology at UCSF.
About 66% of Californians are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, according to state data, with another 7.6% waiting on their second shot. More than 3.8 million people in the Golden State have already received a booster.
The country’s average vaccination rate is 59%, which means California starts off better prepared than others as it heads into what many hope will be the first “normal” holiday season in two years. Cases are also much lower than they were a year ago before the holidays.
“We are nowhere near the peaks of where we were,” said Dr. Timothy Brewer, a professor of medicine and epidemiology at UCLA. “We are substantially better than before.”
Still, California’s future infections, hospitalizations and deaths hinge on driving vaccination rates among a few key demographics. As of Nov. 12, the state’s test positivity rate has ticked up to 2.4%.
The state’s COVID-19 plan focuses on vaccinating younger kids and getting boosters into eligible adult arms.
But California has long struggled to bump up rates among younger age groups and within marginalized communities of color.
▪ Nearly 15% of Californians 65 and up and 13.7% in the 50-64 category aren’t vaccinated. Around a fifth of the 18-49 crowd still needs to be immunized, as well as 32.3% for the 12-17 age range.
▪ Asian and white Californians are among the most fully vaccinated racial groups, with rates of 81.9% and 60.2%, respectively. Those numbers drop to 50.3% for Latinos and 49.3% for Black Californians. Forty-three percent of those who identify as “multi-race” are fully vaccinated.
Monika Lee, spokesperson for the California Pan-Ethnic Health Network, said it’s critical California continue investing in community-based organizations providing outreach efforts among these groups. Lee said more is needed to help Medi-Cal beneficiaries get vaccinated, and the network wants to see more data on which zip codes have lower rates.
“LatinX people, people who speak Spanish, people who speak indigenous languages, we are still seeing a lack of information to those communities and widespread misinformation in those communities,” Lee said.
“There could definitely be more done.”
The state is also focusing on getting newly eligible kids immunized after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine late last month for those in the 5-11 age group.
Newsom’s administration soon after announced a “robust vaccination program” that includes partnering with 500 organizations across the state to help spread the word and administer the 1.2 million pediatric doses.
“Vaccines are how we end this pandemic, and they’re how we keep our kids safe. It’s time to get our children the protection they need from this deadly virus, especially as we head into the winter season,” Newsom said in a Nov. 3 prepared statement.
So far, more than 110,000 kids, or 3.1% of the eligible population, have been partially vaccinated.
The next phase of the pandemic also includes administering recently available booster shots to eligible Californians, per Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance:
▪ Recipients of mRNA vaccines like Pfizer or Moderna who are older, have an underlying health condition or live in long-term care setting should get the extra shot after six months.
▪ Anyone who was vaccinated with the Johnson & Johnson one-dose vaccine, is 18 or older and was vaccinated more than two months ago should get the bump.
▪ Those between 18-49 who got an mRNA shot and who have underlying medical conditions, work or live in risky settings and have been vaccinated at least six months may want to receive a booster.
The California Department of Public Health also has an easy-to-follow eligibility checklist for reference.
Though public health officials say that Californians should check that list, they’ve also encouraged everyone who wants a booster to get one.
Dr. Mark Ghaly, California’s secretary of health and human services, emphasized the availability of the shots this week.
“In all of those cases, it’s permissive by the CDC and FDA to go ahead and get the booster,” Ghaly said. “Absolutely, if you are interested in getting a booster, we ask you to go ahead and get yourself signed up to get one.”
Ghaly said that California is working with pharmacies to ensure there’s enough booster supply for everyone interested.
The vaccines still remain highly effective against the worst of COVID-19, including death and hospitalization. But according to recent global studies, all three of the vaccines widely available in the United States — Moderna, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson — lose some of their strength over several months, sometimes by double digits.
To stop so-called “waning immunity,” more people need that next dose, Rutherford said.
“If people want to get a booster, get a booster,” Rutherford said. “What boosting does is get rid of that as a problem. This winter, it’s a race between getting people boosted and waning immunity.”
This story was originally published November 13, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "A winter COVID surge is coming unless California vaccination rates improve. Here’s where we stand."