Swalwell's rapid exit scrambles California governor's race, reshaping path to November

Rep. Eric Swalwell’s swift political collapse — from gubernatorial contender to withdrawing his bid and resigning from Congress within three days — has upended California’s crowded governor’s race just as ballots are about to land in voters’ mailboxes.

The Castro Valley Democrat was beginning to emerge as a frontrunner, scooping up high-profile endorsements and topping at least one recent independent poll. Now, his departure from the race Sunday evening creates an opening for the seven other leading Democrats — some of whom previously had a difficult path to victory — as they try to pick up his voters.

“It fundamentally alters the race for governor of the fourth largest economy in the world,” Sonoma State University Professor David McCuan said. “This is a new campaign.”

Swalwell’s decision to suspend his bid for governor on Sunday evening came just days after his sharp denial of allegations revealed in reports from the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN on Friday, where a former staffer accused him of sexual assault, and three other women alleged sexual misconduct. By Monday afternoon, he announced he was resigning from Congress on Monday afternoon, as prosecutors from Alameda County to Manhattan began investigations into the alleged sexual assaults.

Polls have shown that older, white Bay Area liberals gravitated toward the congressman more so than his other Democratic rivals, and McCuan said that his voting base will likely “look hard” at the two other Democratic frontrunners - former billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer and former Rep. Katie Porter - before making their choice.

“Some of them will flock to Steyer and to Porter, but not in big numbers and therefore they may scatter across a number of candidates,” he said.

Swalwell’s name, however, will remain on the June ballot, the Secretary of State’s office said, because the deadline to withdraw has passed. And McCuan said it’s likely he will receive some “protest votes” from voters who might be dissatisfied with all of the choices.

Porter’s campaign has contended that she’s best positioned to capture a large chunk of Swalwell voters, according to an April 11 memo obtained by this news organization.

The memo cites an internal poll conducted Feb. 18-22 that showed 46% of Swalwell’s supporters would pick Porter as their second choice, while 14% would pick Steyer.

Dan Schnur, a lecturer at UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and the former spokesperson for Republican Gov. Pete Wilson, said that while Steyer and Porter are “best positioned” to benefit from Swalwell dropping out, they’re both “flawed candidates.”

Steyer has been criticized over his immense wealth and his former hedge fund’s investments. Porter has stalled in the polls after threatening to walk out of an interview with a TV journalist and after videos emerged of her berating her staff.

“They open up an immense opportunity for Matt Mahan,” Schnur said of the San Jose mayor who he believes could emerge as a “centrist alternative,” along with former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

Mahan was a late entrant into the race - propelled to run over what he said was the crowded field’s failure to offer a solutions-driven vision for California. But despite quickly receiving the backing of deep pocketed Silicon Valley supporters, he’s struggled to rise in the polls, often sitting between 3 and 5% support, alongside Villaraigosa and former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra.

Matt Rodriguez, a spokesperson for the Back to Basics independent expenditure committee that’s supporting the mayor, said in an interview that Swalwell’s withdrawal from the race gives Mahan a new shot at breaking through.

He said they’ve received $12 million in donor commitments since Friday afternoon - an indicator of increased interest in the mayor - and have placed a $14 million ad buy in markets outside of the Bay Area for the next three weeks.

“Other than Steyer, no one will even be in our ballpark in terms of the ability to spend,” Rodriguez said, noting that California has historically been an expensive state to run a campaign.

The Democratic strategist attributed Mahan’s slow start to voters not paying attention to the race and the campaign holding back on spending money. Recent polls have shown that voters have been “disengaged” with the contest for who will be the next governor.

“We’re making a big bet now that as people pay attention, we’re going to be able to pick that up a lot quicker,” he said. “There’s no question the first two or three months were slow, but they were really slow for everybody.”

But Swalwell’s exit isn’t the only factor that has recently reshaped the race. Democrats have worried for months that the crowded field would lead to a situation where members of their party might fracture the vote so much that it could cause them to be locked out of the November runoff entirely. Others have dismissed such fears, arguing a Democrat is sure to break out ahead of the pack as more voters engage.

President Donald Trump weighed in last week, endorsing former Fox News host Steve Hilton, raising the chances Republicans consolidating around one of their candidates and leaving an opening for a Democrat. With so many Democrats in the race, the British-born businessman and one of two leading GOP contenders has consistently performed well in the polls. Under California’s primary system, the top two vote-getters regardless of political party advance to the November election.

“He is a truly fine man, one who has watched as this once great State has gone to Hell,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Steve can turn it around, before it is too late, and, as President, I will help him to do so!”

At the California Republican Party convention last weekend, GOP leaders declined to endorse a candidate, though Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco received more votes than Hilton.

Trump, however, will likely have a bigger impact on the broader electorate than party insiders, Schnur said.

“Essentially Donald Trump ensured that a Democrat will end up on the ballot in November and therefore that a Democrat will be elected as governor,” he said.

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This story was originally published April 13, 2026 at 5:22 PM.