With two games to play in the regular season, the boys basketball teams at Modesto and Davis high schools might be in control of their destiny as they fight for a Sac-Joaquin Section playoff berth.
Finish with back-to-back victories, and they're going to the Division I playoffs — most likely. Lose one and the playoffs are over — probably. Lose both and it's time to turn in the uniforms.
That was the cloudy message contained in the final in-season power ratings released Tuesday.
The section uses the ratings to tab 16 playoff teams in each of five divisions for boys and girls. A committee will gather Sunday to assemble the brackets and massage the seedings.
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Which is why Modesto Christian's boys, seeded fourth in Division IV, could be No. 2 Sunday. MC is No. 4 in the Division IV state rankings, but the Trans-Valley League's low strength rating drags down MC's power rating.
The committee likely will put MC and top seed Colfax — 21-2 and the Crusaders' top threat — in separate brackets, setting up a potential MC-Colfax final.
There will be no massaging of the figures for Modesto or Davis, however. They are Nos. 15 and 16 — the final two berths in Division I — with two games to play.
Jesuit of Carmichael is No. 17 and could overtake both teams if it wins twice this week, even if Modesto and Davis both go 2-0. The Marauders' league — the Delta River League — has an 8.0 strength rating, while the Modesto Metro Conference is at 7.2 — so Jesuit's wins are worth more.
One thing is clear:
The Stanislaus District is king of Division IV. Ten of the 16 boys' teams and up to nine girls' teams could be from the district.