Live updates: Modesto 1% sales tax increase heading toward victory in early results
Modesto’s 1% sales tax continued to be heading toward victory in updated results released Tuesday night.
Measure H had received 16,464 votes, or 63%, in support vs. 9,682 votes against it, or 37%, in results released at 11:47 p.m.
Measure H campaign consultant Mike Lynch has said he expected these results to stand up as more votes are counted. The Stanislaus County election office is expected to release more election results Thursday evening.
As a general tax, Measure H requires a simple majority to pass. The measure would increase the city’s sales tax from 7.875% to 8.875%.
“This is very good,” Lynch said Tuesday when the first results were released. “We felt that we were in good shape. ... I wouldn’t be surprised if the 62% becomes 59%, but I would be surprised if it becomes 49%.”
The county election office reported in its updated results that voter turnout for Measure H was at 23.9%. Lynch earlier this week predicted a final voter turnout of 65%, but said Tuesday evening that he expected turnout to be lower.
Mayor Sue Zwahlen said based on the early results she was “overwhelmed with gratitude for the residents of our community for making Modesto what we all want it to be.”
She said that is a safe, prosperous and clean community. Modesto officials have said the city does not have enough revenue to provide the level of services that residents expect.
As a general tax, Modesto can spend Measure H on any service it provides. But city officials say the tax will be spent on such basics as public safety, cleaner and safer parks, blight and addressing homelessness. The City Council is required to form a nine-member community oversight board to monitor how Measure H is spent.
Zwahlen said she plans on holding a City Council workshop to discuss these spending priorities.
The mayor also welcomed the three new members of the seven-member council. Nick Bavaro and Eric Alvarez ran unopposed and were assured victory, while Jeremiah Williams was leading Naramsen Goriel with 68.6% of the vote vs. 31.4% for Goriel as late Tuesday night. Both men expected Williams’ lead to hold.
City officials say Measure H would bring in $39 million annually to the city’s $171.4 million general fund. While the sales, property and other taxes that fuel the general fund are growing, they have not grown as fast as the fund’s expenses. Those expenses primarily are for employee compensation, health care and pensions. About 80% of the fund is spent on the Police and Fire departments.
The general fund has a structural deficit that Modesto has closed by such measures as not filling open positions, postponing maintenance and reducing services. These reductions have included less traffic enforcement, locking park bathrooms that have been repeatedly targeted by vandals, and additional years before crews trim city trees.
Lynch said the city made a good case in telling its story about why it needs more revenue before putting the tax on the ballot. He also praised Measure H campaign chairwoman Kristin Olsen for her leadership and the others who worked on the campaign.
But he said the sales tax had broad support from throughout the community. He said that support cut across political affiliation, ideology and other issues that can separate people.
“I’ve never seen the degree of community cooperation in this campaign,” said Lynch, who has worked as a local political consultant for more than 30 years.
“... No one is happy raising taxes,” Lynch continued. “And considering the obstacles to a tax increase — $6 a gallon gasoline, interest rates rising, people worried about their jobs — this is not the time to say, ‘Give me more money.’ But the voters decided in the full light of the day” to support Measure H.
The Measure H campaign, which is called the Committee For a Better Modesto, has reported raising nearly $239,000, with a little more than a third of that coming from public safety unions.
The Modesto Police Officers Association contributed $50,000, the Modesto City Fire Fighters Association contributed $15,453, the California Professional Firefighters Ballot Issues Committee contributed $4,022 and the International Association of Fire Fighters gave $12,500.
But the campaign also received donations from prominent residents and businesses. That included entrepreneur Dan Costa ($5,000), PMZ Real Estate CEO Mike Zagaris ($5,000), J.S. West Milling Co., ($5,000), Boyett Petroleum ($10,000) and former Chamber of Commerce President-CEO Cecil Russell ($1,000).
The Beard Land Improvement Co. also donated $5,000. The company owns the Beard Industrial District, a 2,000-acre industrial park that is home to some of Modesto’s biggest companies, including the E.&J. Gallo Winery, Frito-Lay and Del Monte.
Voters also were supporting Measure G on Tuesday’s ballot. The measure does two things. It changes the timing of when the mayor is elected, to ensure high voter turnout, and it expands the qualifications of who can serve as city auditor and expands the audit committee by adding two city residents with experience in financial and performance auditing.
Modesto moved from odd-year to even-year elections in 2020 to increase voter turnout. That worked for council elections but not as well for the mayoral election.
Turnout was 77.1% in November 2020 for the mayoral race but dropped to 29.4% in the February 2021 runoff. The race for mayor typically ends in a runoff because no candidate gets a majority of the vote in the election.
The mayor’s election will be held at the same time as the state primary, which was in June this year, and the runoff will be held in the November election. If a candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary and a runoff is not needed, the candidate would not take office until after the November council elections.
Measure G has received 17,648 votes, or 68.5%, in support vs. 8,123 votes, or 31.5%, against it as of late Tuesday night.
This story was originally published November 8, 2022 at 9:26 PM.
