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Tuesday, Jun. 23, 2009

Recipe for All-Star mix could use few more Nuts

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The Modesto Nuts won 40 of the first 70 games they have played in the 2009 California League season -- the third-best record in the 10-team league. They were in contention for the first-half Northern Division title until the next-to-last game.

Stands to reason, then, that the Nuts have some good ballplayers.

So why was only one Nut named a Cal League All-Star for tonight's game against the Carolina League All-Stars at 7:05 p.m. in Lake Elsinore? Good question. But there aren't any easy answers.

League all-stars are picked by field and general managers; the only stipulation is that they can't vote for their own players. But not every manager has seen the Nuts, because Modesto has yet to face High Desert or Lake Elsinore.

So managers are forced to rely on stats, and statistics rarely tell a complete story.

For instance, generally speaking, south-state ballparks are smaller than those in the north and at a higher elevation -- meaning they're hitters' parks. Ballparks in the north are more spacious and tend to favor pitchers.

That might explain why closer Craig Baker -- with 20 saves, a 3.06 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 32 innings -- will represent Modesto. But it doesn't explain why at least one other Nut isn't among 12 position players or 10 pitchers.

Modesto is one of only four Cal League teams with only one all-star (the minimum) -- and the only one with a winning record.

Host team Lake Elsinore, 39-31, has five all-stars. High Desert, the league's winningest team, has four and San Jose has three. But Inland Empire, which won eight fewer games than Modesto, also has three.

No doubt, San Jose's Thomas Neal (.342 average, 142 total bases) and Buster Posey (.328, 133) belong in anyone's all-star game. But perhaps because Modesto has played most of its games in pitchers' parks, its hitters have more conservative stats. Still, Charles Blackmon (.299, 108) and Maikol Gonzalez (.311, 75) compare well to all-stars Trayvon Robinson (.301, 147) of Inland Empire, Matt Lawson (.293, 102) of Bakersfield and Jonathan Gaston (.315, 120) of Lancaster.

It's happened before. In 2004, Brian Stavisky led the league in hitting at .343, but wasn't invited to the all-star game.

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